Mithrandir Metrics
Player Arizona Diamondbacks Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Arizona Diamondbacks

Ildemaro Vargas

1B · Bats/Throws S/R · 5' 11", 202 lb · Age 35

Cards
23
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Arizona Diamondbacks Position 1B Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024303216719.246.295.316.611
2025121123130.270.292.383.675
20264846211593.255.299.379.678
10 Seasons17971904182919.250.292.363.655
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
37
Defense3 metrics
58
Speed3 metrics
41
Plate skills12 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.292
xwOBA current pace0.298
xwOBA rolling p500.296
Observed weight70%
xwOBA
0.272 0.283 0.296 0.309 0.320
wOBA
0.300 0.313 0.327 0.341 0.354
ISO
0.106 0.118 0.132 0.145 0.158
K%
8.4% 9.4% 10.6% 11.7% 12.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.6%
19
Exit velocity87.0
40
Hard-hit%35.7%
37 +16 vs proj
xBA0.300
30
xSLG0.406
14
xwOBA0.298
45
BB%5.6%
18
Bat speed68.5
34
K%9.7%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.5 · 1B
25
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
80
Range Runs1.3 · 1B
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · 1B
72
Bolts1.0 · 1B
11
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
41
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions60.3% · rebadged research
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
8
Fastball Stuff+61
0
Mithrandir Stuff+66
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
81
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
78
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.408 · validated
2
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Vargas, Ildemaro · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.298 2026-09-12: 0.3002026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.2982026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2962026-09-20: 0.2962026-09-21: 0.2972026-09-22: 0.2972026-09-23: 0.2982026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.298 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Vargas, Ildemaro · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 38%38%Whiff: 13%13%Zone contact: 93%93%Contact: 87%87%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vargas, Ildemaro · 2026 arsenal snapshot Other: 47.9%Eephus: 37.5%Slow Curve: 14.6% FA48% · 67 mphprimary pitch FA 48%EP 38%CS 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vargas, Ildemaro · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Other: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 4″ drop, 67.2 mphFA67 mphEephus: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 41.5 mphEP41 mphSlow Curve: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 7″ drop, 56.6 mphCS57 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 75.0% 12 61 limited sample
CB 25.0% 4 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height5' 11"
Weight202 lb
Debut2017-06-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.007
wOBA Δ+0.036

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.1σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.327
xwOBA (deserved)0.298

Vargas’s wOBA sits at 0.327, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.298 — a gap of 0.029, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 504 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
Sanoja, Javier MIA · R 0.68 Walk rateSwing length Player · Projection
Naylor, Josh SEA · L 0.67 Chase rateAvg exit velocity Player · Projection
Rocchio, Brayan CLE · L 0.67 xwOBA on contactIsolated power Player · Projection
Lee, Jung Hoo SF · L 0.66 Strikeout rateIsolated power Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-08-05Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding222026-09-221 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.218
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA | 5 HRProjection
2026-08-15 @ ATL1 HR | 3 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E1-5 | HR, 3 RBI, R
2026-05-20 vs SF0 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E0-4 | RBI
2026-04-17 vs TOR0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E1-3
2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E2-5 | 2B, R
2026-04-14 @ BAL1 HR | 3 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E1-5 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBI