Mithrandir Metrics
Player Arizona Diamondbacks Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Arizona Diamondbacks

Ildemaro Vargas

1B · Bats/Throws S/R · 5' 11", 202 lb · Age 35

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Arizona Diamondbacks Position 1B Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024303216719.246.295.316.611
2025121123130.270.292.383.675
2026304407372.258.301.399.700
10 Seasons16171683762718.250.292.365.657
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
33
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
38
Defense3 metrics
51
Speed3 metrics
41
Plate skills11 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.292
xwOBA current pace0.309
xwOBA rolling p500.302
Observed weight59%
xwOBA
0.273 0.287 0.302 0.317 0.331
wOBA
0.312 0.328 0.346 0.364 0.380
ISO
0.108 0.124 0.141 0.159 0.174
K%
8.1% 9.4% 10.9% 12.3% 13.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
20
Exit velocity87.0
35
Hard-hit%35.1%
32
xBA0.312
38
xSLG0.426
21
xwOBA0.309
51 +19 vs proj
BB%5.3%
15
Bat speed68.4
32
K%9.7%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength79.7 · 1B
7
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.8 · 1B
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · 1B
65
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.1% · rebadged research
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.8% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions57.3% · rebadged research
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline84
6
Mithrandir Stuff+55
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
16
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.373 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
85
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399 · validated
3
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Vargas, Ildemaro · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.309 2026-07-06: 0.3082026-07-07: 0.3082026-07-08: 0.3062026-07-09: 0.3062026-07-10: 0.3132026-07-11: 0.3122026-07-12: 0.3082026-07-13: 0.3082026-07-14: 0.3092026-07-15: 0.3092026-07-16: 0.3092026-07-17: 0.309 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Vargas, Ildemaro · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 38%38%Whiff: 13%13%Zone contact: 92%92%Contact: 87%87%Hard hit: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vargas, Ildemaro · 2026 arsenal snapshot Other: 45.0%Eephus: 40.0%Slow Curve: 15.0% FA45% · 67 mphprimary pitch FA 45%EP 40%CS 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vargas, Ildemaro · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Other: 45% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 4″ drop, 67.2 mphFA67 mphEephus: 40% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 39.9 mphEP40 mphSlow Curve: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 7″ drop, 56.2 mphCS56 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 75.0% 9 54 limited sample
CB 25.0% 3 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height5' 11"
Weight202 lb
Debut2017-06-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.018
wOBA Δ+0.056

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.346
xwOBA (deserved)0.309

Vargas’s wOBA sits at 0.346, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.309 — a gap of 0.038, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 319 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
Andujar, Miguel SD · R 0.81 Hard-hit ratePull rate Player · Projection
Sanoja, Javier MIA · R 0.72 Ground-ball rateFly-ball rate Player · Projection
Yoshida, Masataka BOS · L 0.69 Pull ratexwOBA on contact Player · Projection
Naylor, Josh SEA · L 0.66 Bat speedAvg exit velocity Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA | 5 HRProjection
2026-05-20 vs SF0 HR | 1 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E0-4 | RBI
2026-04-17 vs TOR0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E1-3
2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E2-5 | 2B, R
2026-04-14 @ BAL1 HR | 3 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E1-5 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBI
2026-04-13 @ BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E2-4 | 2B, R