Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Vargas, Ildemaro
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
31
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.292 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.283
0.295
0.308
0.319
wOBA
0.299
0.311
0.325
0.340
0.352
ISO
0.105
0.118
0.131
0.145
0.157
K%
8.7%
9.7%
10.8%
11.9%
13.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.6%
18
Exit velocity87.0
40
Hard-hit%35.7%
38
+17 vs proj
xBA0.300
30
xSLG0.406
14
xwOBA0.297
44
BB%5.5%
18
Bat speed68.5
34
K%10.1%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.5 · 1B
25
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
80
Range Runs1.2 · 1B
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · 1B
72
Bolts1.0 · 1B
11
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
41
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions60.3% · rebadged research
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
8
Fastball Stuff+61
0
Mithrandir Stuff+66
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
81
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
78
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.408 · validated
2
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.035 |
| Sample | 506 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 302 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.247 to 0.351 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.101 | 0.055 to 0.201 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 0.7% to 5.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.4% | 24.5% to 40.9% | +/- 8.2% |
| K% | 11.3% | 8.6% to 20.4% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 3.8% to 9.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.242 to 0.329 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
529 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.224 |
| K% | 7.1% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
912 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.198 |
| K% | 7.5% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |