Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Vargas, Ildemaro
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.292 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.287
0.302
0.317
0.331
wOBA
0.312
0.328
0.346
0.364
0.380
ISO
0.108
0.124
0.141
0.159
0.174
K%
8.1%
9.4%
10.9%
12.3%
13.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
20
Exit velocity87.0
35
Hard-hit%35.1%
32
xBA0.312
38
xSLG0.426
21
xwOBA0.309
51
+19 vs proj
BB%5.3%
15
Bat speed68.4
32
K%9.7%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength79.7 · 1B
7
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.8 · 1B
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · 1B
65
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.1% · rebadged research
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.8% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions57.3% · rebadged research
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline84
6
Mithrandir Stuff+55
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
16
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.373 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
85
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
203 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.056 |
| Sample | 319 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 302 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.247 to 0.351 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.101 | 0.055 to 0.201 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 0.7% to 5.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.4% | 24.5% to 40.9% | +/- 8.2% |
| K% | 11.3% | 8.6% to 20.4% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 3.8% to 9.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.242 to 0.329 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
529 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.224 |
| K% | 7.1% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
912 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.198 |
| K% | 7.5% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |