Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Vargas, Ildemaro
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.292 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.272
0.288
0.305
0.322
0.337
wOBA
0.348
0.367
0.389
0.410
0.430
ISO
0.118
0.137
0.157
0.178
0.197
K%
8.1%
9.6%
11.2%
12.9%
14.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.5%
6
Barrel%3.5%
28
Bat speed68.1
29
Exit velocity86.7
29
Hard-hit%34.5%
27
K%10.0%
98
xBA0.326
54
xSLG0.461
33
xwOBA0.317
58
+26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.8 · 1B
6
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs0.0 · 1B
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 1B
58
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
42
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.2% · rebadged research
12
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.7% · rebadged research
7
Correct Decisions57.3% · rebadged research
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline86
6
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
64
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
50
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.373 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.394 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.027 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.098 |
| Sample | 230 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 302 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.247 to 0.351 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.101 | 0.055 to 0.201 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 0.7% to 5.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.4% | 24.5% to 40.9% | +/- 8.2% |
| K% | 11.3% | 8.6% to 20.4% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 3.8% to 9.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.242 to 0.329 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
529 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.224 |
| K% | 7.1% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
912 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.198 |
| K% | 7.5% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |