Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.304 vs 0.260 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Naylor, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.334 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.300
0.313
0.328
0.343
0.357
wOBA
0.286
0.304
0.323
0.343
0.360
ISO
0.097
0.113
0.130
0.147
0.163
K%
11.9%
13.0%
14.2%
15.4%
16.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
38
Barrel%4.2%
39
-15 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
30
Exit velocity87.3
35
Hard-hit%37.0%
38
-16 vs proj
K%13.5%
91
xBA0.333
60
xSLG0.495
45
xwOBA0.334
71
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-1.1 · 1B
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate90.0% · 1B
82
Sprint Speed24.5 · 1B
2
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.9% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions62.6% · rebadged research
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
192 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| Sample | 259 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 610 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.279 to 0.366 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.169 | 0.112 to 0.245 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.6% to 7.4% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.1% | 37.9% to 48.6% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 15.2% | 12.5% to 20.3% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 6.4% to 10.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.282 | 0.263 to 0.332 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
870 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
2250 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.304 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |