Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
McNeil, Jeff
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.293
0.307
0.322
0.335
wOBA
0.275
0.294
0.316
0.337
0.356
ISO
0.084
0.099
0.117
0.134
0.150
K%
10.7%
11.9%
13.3%
14.6%
15.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
43
Barrel%0.9%
5
Bat speed65.9
11
Exit velocity85.9
22
Hard-hit%30.7%
15
K%13.0%
92
xBA0.324
51
xSLG0.418
20
xwOBA0.311
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
53
Arm Strength84.5 · 2B
39
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
27
Range Runs-2.8 · 2B
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · 2B
13
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.0% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.4% · rebadged research
95
Correct Decisions71.1% · rebadged research
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
60
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
163 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| Sample | 215 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 481 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.305 | 0.280 to 0.357 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.104 to 0.227 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 2.4% | 1.2% to 4.4% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.9% | 24.8% to 37.8% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 13.0% | 10.3% to 18.6% | +/- 4.1% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 5.9% to 10.9% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.272 | 0.230 to 0.314 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
1030 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.254 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
2731 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |