Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 25 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| Debut | 2023-08-04 |
Player profile / Washington Nationals
Curtis Mead
1B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 225 lb · Age 25
Club Washington Nationals
Position 1B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 132 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 2 | .238 | .282 | .287 | .569 |
| 2025 | 264 | 26 | 56 | 3 | 5 | .233 | .299 | .321 | .620 |
| 2026 | 199 | 31 | 40 | 10 | 3 | .234 | .342 | .468 | .810 |
| 4 Seasons | 687 | 79 | 146 | 15 | 10 | .237 | .312 | .359 | .671 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
71
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.288 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.369 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.327 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.294
0.310
0.327
0.344
0.360
wOBA
0.340
0.360
0.383
0.405
0.426
ISO
0.139
0.156
0.175
0.194
0.211
K%
16.8%
18.4%
20.1%
21.8%
23.3%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
80
+53 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
54
Hard-hit%45.1%
72
+45 vs proj
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.595
71
xwOBA0.369
89
+54 vs proj
BB%12.0%
82
+63 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
67
K%17.2%
78
+28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
40
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 1B
3
Range Runs-3.3 · 1B
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed26.9 · 1B
38
SB Success Rate33.3% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.6% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
14
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
118 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.074 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.088 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Mead’s wOBA sits at 0.383, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.369 — a gap of 0.014, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 209 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-05-22 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.294 xwOBA | 6 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K, R |
| 2026-04-17 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-15 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K |
| 2026-04-14 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 1 E | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-13 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 |