Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Marte, Ketel
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team AZ
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
81
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.364 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.364 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.364 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.338
0.350
0.364
0.377
0.389
wOBA
0.318
0.333
0.348
0.364
0.378
ISO
0.180
0.194
0.208
0.223
0.236
K%
13.4%
14.3%
15.3%
16.4%
17.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.4%
88
Exit velocity90.7
83
Hard-hit%44.9%
75
xBA0.348
77
xSLG0.589
74
xwOBA0.364
90
BB%7.2%
33
-35 vs proj
Bat speed73.2
91
K%14.0%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
71
Arm Strength91.5 · 2B
83
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
85
Range Runs2.2 · 2B
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
56
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
Sprint Speed26.6 · 2B
29
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
63
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
82
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated
27
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.430 · validated
0
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
226 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| Sample | 415 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 549 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 26 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.360 | 0.310 to 0.402 | +/- 0.046 |
| ISO | 0.207 | 0.162 to 0.291 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 6.9% | 5.3% to 9.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.2% | 41.5% to 52.8% | +/- 5.6% |
| K% | 17.1% | 14.5% to 22.4% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 10.1% | 8.5% to 12.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.263 to 0.342 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
1714 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.329 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |
vs RHP
3623 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.307 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 9.4% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |