Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Marte, Ketel
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team AZ
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.364 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.375 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.370 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.340
0.354
0.370
0.385
0.400
wOBA
0.317
0.335
0.355
0.376
0.394
ISO
0.167
0.184
0.202
0.220
0.236
K%
13.6%
14.7%
16.0%
17.2%
18.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.9%
40
-27 vs proj
Barrel%8.3%
84
Bat speed72.7
87
Exit velocity90.2
75
Hard-hit%43.6%
66
K%14.3%
88
xBA0.364
83
xSLG0.605
76
xwOBA0.375
90
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
81
Arm Strength85.8 · 2B
53
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs3.0 · 2B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · 2B
48
Sprint Speed26.4 · 2B
25
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research
36
Correct Decisions64.0% · rebadged research
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
85
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366 · validated
12
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.416 · validated
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| Sample | 252 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 549 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 26 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.360 | 0.310 to 0.402 | +/- 0.046 |
| ISO | 0.207 | 0.162 to 0.291 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 6.9% | 5.3% to 9.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.2% | 41.5% to 52.8% | +/- 5.6% |
| K% | 17.1% | 14.5% to 22.4% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 10.1% | 8.5% to 12.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.263 to 0.342 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
1714 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.329 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |
vs RHP
3623 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.307 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 9.4% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |