Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

HOU at ATH

Hayden Wesneski vs Jack Perkins · 9:40 PM ET

Scheduled 9:40 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean HOU or ATH?

The run projection leans HOU over ATH.

Projected runs: HOU 5.0, ATH 4.5. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs HOU 5.0 · ATH 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.6 · Market 9.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line HOU -1.5 · ATH 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 46.0% · YRFI 54.0% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 6 Available in 6 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

6 matched rows

Total bases · ATH vs HOU Lawrence Butler Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.3% F-- V--

Model 51.3% Market 34.5% Model-market gap +16.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATH vs HOU Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.2% F-- V--

Model 43.2% Market 28.6% Model-market gap +14.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATH vs HOU Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.8% F-- V--

Model 45.8% Market 33.9% Model-market gap +11.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATH vs HOU Zack Gelof Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P48.1% F-- V--

Model 48.1% Market 40.8% Model-market gap +7.3 pts

Open board

Home runs · ATH vs HOU Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P17.3% F15.6% V14.9%

Model 19.6% Market 14.9% Model-market gap +4.7 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · HOU vs ATH Hayden Wesneski Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P55.7% F-- V50.7%

Model 55.7% Market 52.8% Model-market gap +2.9 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

A's win contract 39.5% Bid 39c · ask 40c

Houston win contract 60.5% Bid 60c · ask 61c

First inning run: Yes 51.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.