Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Jeff McNeil

ATH · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 8 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski
Sample3717.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 54.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.1% Market 66.1% Gap +11.9pp
BetMGM -195 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
5
Exit velocity86.1
30
Hard-hit%29.5%
15
xBA0.310
40
xSLG0.411
17
xwOBA0.299
47
BB%5.9%
22 -23 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
21
K%11.2%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
73
Arm Strength86.3 · 2B
44
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
80
Range Runs-2.6 · 2B
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.3 · 2B
13
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
58
Sprint Speed26.3 · 2B
22
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.0%
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 16.4%
97
Correct Decisions69.6%
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.280 to 0.357
RegressionNegative · -0.018
Opposing pitcherHayden Wesneski
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)