Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

LAD at SF

Blake Snell vs Matt Wilkinson · 4:05 PM ET

Warmup 0 - 0

The question

Does Mithrandir lean LAD or SF?

Mithrandir currently leans LAD over SF.

Live win probability from the latest pitch-aware Mirror simulation.

62.9% Mirror live re-sim

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs LAD 4.6 · SF 4.0 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.6 · Market 7.5 model minus market +1.1 runs

Run line LAD -1.5 · SF 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.7% · YRFI 50.3% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 3 Available in 3 player rows

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

3 matched rows

Total bases · SF vs LAD Luis Arraez Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P55.7% F-- V--

Model 55.7% Market 23.5% Model-market gap +32.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · SF vs LAD Heliot Ramos Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.0% F-- V--

Model 52.0% Market 31.7% Model-market gap +20.3 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · LAD vs SF Blake Snell Under 6.5 · Healthy / active roster

P55.3% F-- V53.3%

Model 55.3% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Los Angeles D win contract 71.5% Bid 71c · ask 72c · Mithrandir 62.9%

San Francisco win contract 28.5% Bid 28c · ask 29c · Mithrandir 37.1%

First inning run: Yes 42.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.