Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
LAD @ SF, live.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Live · Top 5 · 3-1 · 0 out
LAD @ SF: live re-simulation
The newest pitch state publishes before the Monte Carlo finishes. This page checks every 5 seconds. State checked 21:24:10Z UTC · probabilities updated 21:21:45Z UTC · back to slate
LAD 84.7%SF 15.3%
8.06live total (pre 6.73)
4.08 / 2.0SP K projections
36% → 15%SF win prob, pregame → now
Market context · Kalshi (display only, not affiliated)
88.5% vs 85.2%
LAD wins · market mid vs model fair (live)
11.5% vs 14.8%
SF wins · market mid vs model fair (live)
A gap is a disagreement, not advice; the market is often right. Snapshot 4m old · all event markets · responsible gaming
SF win probability across the game so far.
| Inn | Matchup | Opening PA forecast | Actual | SF win prob → |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 4 | Shay Whitcomb vs Blake Snell | Reach 25% 1B 14% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.3% · BB 6% · K 34% · BIP out 41% | Single | 15.1% |
| Bot 4 | Andrew Knizner vs Blake Snell | Reach 28% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.2% · HR 1.2% · BB 7% · K 28% · BIP out 45% | Flyout | 14.9% ▼ 2.8 |
| Bot 4 | Brett Harris vs Blake Snell | Reach 27% 1B 14% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 0.9% · BB 8% · K 34% · BIP out 39% | Groundout | 17.7% ▼ 4.6 |
| Top 4 | Mookie Betts vs Tristan Beck | Reach 33% 1B 15% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.4% · BB 8% · K 10% · BIP out 57% | Flyout | 22.3% ▲ 7.4 |
| Top 4 | Tommy Edman vs Tristan Beck | Reach 31% 1B 17% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.2% · BB 6% · K 18% · BIP out 52% | Single +1 RBI | 14.9% ▼ 10.8 |
| Top 4 | Enrique Hernández vs Duncan Davitt | Reach 30% 1B 14% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.6% · BB 8% · K 26% · BIP out 44% | Strikeout | 25.7% ▲ 6.9 |
| Top 4 | Andy Pages vs Duncan Davitt | Reach 33% 1B 15% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 4.1% · BB 8% · K 20% · BIP out 47% | Walk | 18.9% ▼ 4.3 |
| Top 4 | Miguel Rojas vs Duncan Davitt | Reach 32% 1B 18% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.6% · BB 7% · K 14% · BIP out 54% | Single +1 RBI | 23.1% ▼ 12.6 |
| Top 4 | Kyle Tucker vs Duncan Davitt | Reach 32% 1B 14% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.3% · BB 11% · K 18% · BIP out 50% | Single | 35.7% ▼ 6.6 |
| Top 4 | Teoscar Hernández vs Duncan Davitt | Reach 33% 1B 16% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 4.1% · BB 8% · K 27% · BIP out 40% | Strikeout | 42.3% ▲ 9.4 |
| Top 4 | Will Smith vs Duncan Davitt | Reach 33% 1B 14% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.9% · BB 10% · K 19% · BIP out 48% | Single | 32.9% ▼ 6.9 |
| Bot 3 | Bo Davidson vs Blake Snell | Reach 30% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.3% · BB 9% · K 34% · BIP out 37% | Strikeout | 39.7% ▼ 2.3 |
| Bot 3 | Victor Bericoto vs Blake Snell | Reach 27% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.6% · BB 6% · K 34% · BIP out 40% | Flyout | 42.0% ▼ 4.9 |
| Bot 3 | Turner Hill vs Blake Snell | Reach 29% 1B 15% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.4% · HR 0.8% · BB 10% · K 27% · BIP out 44% | Sac Fly +1 RBI | 46.9% ▲ 12.3 |
| Bot 3 | Jonah Cox vs Blake Snell | Reach 29% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.5% · HR 1.1% · BB 8% · K 41% · BIP out 30% | Double | 34.6% ▲ 4.0 |
| Top 3 | Shohei Ohtani vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 34% 1B 14% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.4% · HR 4.6% · BB 9% · K 25% · BIP out 42% | Flyout | 30.6% ▲ 1.7 |
| Top 3 | Mookie Betts vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 31% 1B 14% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 4.1% · BB 7% · K 13% · BIP out 56% | Home Run +1 RBI | 28.9% ▼ 12.9 |
| Top 3 | Tommy Edman vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 28% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.7% · BB 6% · K 21% · BIP out 50% | Flyout | 41.7% ▼ 3.1 |
| Top 3 | Enrique Hernández vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 28% 1B 14% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.2% · BB 6% · K 26% · BIP out 46% | Flyout | 44.9% ▲ 6.6 |
| Bot 2 | Christian Koss vs Blake Snell | Reach 26% 1B 16% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.4% · HR 1.0% · BB 6% · K 33% · BIP out 41% | Groundout | 38.3% ▼ 0.6 |
| Bot 2 | Scott Bandura vs Blake Snell | Reach 30% 1B 16% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 0.8% · BB 10% · K 37% · BIP out 33% | Strikeout | 38.9% ▼ 1.4 |
| Bot 2 | Shay Whitcomb vs Blake Snell | Reach 25% 1B 14% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.3% · BB 6% · K 34% · BIP out 41% | Single | 40.3% ▼ 2.3 |
| Bot 2 | Andrew Knizner vs Blake Snell | Reach 28% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.2% · HR 1.2% · BB 7% · K 28% · BIP out 45% | Strikeout | 42.6% ▲ 2.6 |
| Top 2 | Andy Pages vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 31% 1B 16% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 3.7% · BB 6% · K 20% · BIP out 49% | Groundout | 40.0% ▼ 3.7 |
| Top 2 | Miguel Rojas vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 30% 1B 18% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.3% · BB 5% · K 14% · BIP out 56% | Walk | 43.7% ▲ 3.4 |
| Top 2 | Kyle Tucker vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 30% 1B 14% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.9% · BB 9% · K 18% · BIP out 52% | Pop Out | 40.3% |
| Top 2 | Teoscar Hernández vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 31% 1B 16% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 3.6% · BB 7% · K 27% · BIP out 42% | Strikeout | 40.3% ▲ 4.3 |
| Bot 1 | Brett Harris vs Blake Snell | Reach 27% 1B 14% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 0.9% · BB 8% · K 34% · BIP out 39% | Flyout | 36.0% ▼ 1.4 |
| Bot 1 | Bo Davidson vs Blake Snell | Reach 30% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.3% · BB 9% · K 34% · BIP out 37% | Single | 37.4% ▼ 4.6 |
| Bot 1 | Victor Bericoto vs Blake Snell | Reach 27% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.6% · BB 6% · K 34% · BIP out 40% | Double | 42.0% ▲ 5.7 |
| Bot 1 | Turner Hill vs Blake Snell | Reach 29% 1B 15% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.4% · HR 0.8% · BB 10% · K 27% · BIP out 44% | Flyout | 36.3% ▼ 2.0 |
| Bot 1 | Jonah Cox vs Blake Snell | Reach 29% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.5% · HR 1.1% · BB 8% · K 41% · BIP out 30% | Groundout | 38.3% ▲ 0.6 |
| Top 1 | Will Smith vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 31% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.4% · BB 8% · K 19% · BIP out 50% | Flyout | 37.7% ▼ 8.0 |
| Top 1 | Shohei Ohtani vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 34% 1B 14% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.4% · HR 4.6% · BB 9% · K 25% · BIP out 42% | Strikeout | 45.7% ▲ 7.7 |
| Top 1 | Mookie Betts vs Matt Wilkinson | Reach 31% 1B 14% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 4.1% · BB 7% · K 13% · BIP out 56% | Flyout | 38.0% |
The opening forecast is the 0-0 matchup distribution, not one random Monte Carlo draw. The at-the-plate panel and win probability re-simulate from the current count and game state after every pitch.
Pregame baseline
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Snell, Blake vs Wilkinson, Matt · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
LAD 64.3%SF 35.7%
4.11 – 2.62mean score
6.73mean total
62%NRFI
12.1%extra innings
7.66 / 5.09starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
LAD (gold) vs SF (cyan)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
LAD per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betts, Mookie | 4.807 | 1.168 | 0.15 | 1.913 | 0.422 | 0.711 | 0.482 |
| Ohtani, Shohei | 4.691 | 1.113 | 0.157 | 1.911 | 0.498 | 1.318 | 0.508 |
| Smith, Will | 4.593 | 1.045 | 0.12 | 1.641 | 0.44 | 1.009 | 0.499 |
| Hernández, Teoscar | 4.488 | 1.092 | 0.116 | 1.718 | 0.337 | 1.349 | 0.521 |
| Tucker, Kyle | 4.38 | 0.914 | 0.089 | 1.391 | 0.439 | 0.891 | 0.446 |
| Rojas, Miguel | 4.267 | 1.062 | 0.07 | 1.498 | 0.255 | 0.698 | 0.43 |
| Pages, Andy | 4.152 | 1.007 | 0.11 | 1.589 | 0.31 | 0.934 | 0.482 |
| Hernández, Enrique | 4.045 | 0.861 | 0.088 | 1.32 | 0.283 | 1.204 | 0.392 |
| Edman, Tommy | 3.925 | 0.87 | 0.067 | 1.264 | 0.249 | 0.976 | 0.352 |
Projected batting lines
SF per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cox, Jonah | 4.454 | 0.972 | 0.055 | 1.37 | 0.33 | 1.854 | 0.291 |
| Hill, Turner | 4.346 | 0.857 | 0.031 | 1.126 | 0.446 | 1.157 | 0.268 |
| Bericoto, Victor | 4.246 | 0.904 | 0.062 | 1.307 | 0.251 | 1.425 | 0.359 |
| 815589 | 4.152 | 0.869 | 0.06 | 1.256 | 0.364 | 1.401 | 0.347 |
| Harris, Brett | 4.051 | 0.74 | 0.041 | 1.003 | 0.33 | 1.385 | 0.278 |
| Knizner, Andrew | 3.942 | 0.819 | 0.057 | 1.159 | 0.275 | 1.083 | 0.288 |
| Whitcomb, Shay | 3.821 | 0.75 | 0.065 | 1.099 | 0.234 | 1.308 | 0.28 |
| Bandura, Scott | 3.693 | 0.792 | 0.035 | 1.053 | 0.34 | 1.365 | 0.246 |
| Koss, Christian | 3.572 | 0.723 | 0.043 | 0.993 | 0.204 | 1.164 | 0.261 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Betts, Mookie vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
Ohtani, Shohei vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
Smith, Will vs Wilkinson, Matt: K
— Bottom 1 —
Cox, Jonah vs Snell, Blake: OUT GB
Hill, Turner vs Snell, Blake: K
Bericoto, Victor vs Snell, Blake: K
— Top 2 —
Hernández, Teoscar vs Wilkinson, Matt: K
Tucker, Kyle vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
Rojas, Miguel vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
Harris, Brett vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
Knizner, Andrew vs Snell, Blake: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
Pages, Andy vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT AIR
Hernández, Enrique vs Wilkinson, Matt: HR +1 run (1-0)
Edman, Tommy vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
Betts, Mookie vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Whitcomb, Shay vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
Bandura, Scott vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
Koss, Christian vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Ohtani, Shohei vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT AIR
Smith, Will vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
Hernández, Teoscar vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Cox, Jonah vs Snell, Blake: K
Hill, Turner vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
Bericoto, Victor vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Tucker, Kyle vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT AIR
Rojas, Miguel vs Wilkinson, Matt: K
Pages, Andy vs Wilkinson, Matt: 1B
Hernández, Enrique vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
vs Snell, Blake: K
Harris, Brett vs Snell, Blake: 1B
Knizner, Andrew vs Snell, Blake: OUT GB
Whitcomb, Shay vs Snell, Blake: 1B
Bandura, Scott vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Edman, Tommy vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
Betts, Mookie vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT AIR
Ohtani, Shohei vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Koss, Christian vs Snell, Blake: 1B
Cox, Jonah vs Snell, Blake: OUT AIR
Hill, Turner vs Snell, Blake: OUT GB
Bericoto, Victor vs Snell, Blake: 1B
vs Snell, Blake: K
— Top 7 —
Smith, Will vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
Hernández, Teoscar vs Wilkinson, Matt: BB
Tucker, Kyle vs Wilkinson, Matt: K
Rojas, Miguel vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Harris, Brett vs Snell, Blake: K
Knizner, Andrew vs Phillips, Evan: OUT GB
Whitcomb, Shay vs Phillips, Evan: 1B
Bandura, Scott vs Phillips, Evan: 1B
Koss, Christian vs Phillips, Evan: 1B
Cox, Jonah vs Phillips, Evan: 1B +2 runs (1-2)
Hill, Turner vs Dreyer, Jack: 2B +2 runs (1-4)
Bericoto, Victor vs Dreyer, Jack: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Pages, Andy vs Wilkinson, Matt: OUT AIR
Hernández, Enrique vs Wilkinson, Matt: HR +1 run (2-4)
Edman, Tommy vs Miller, Erik: K
Betts, Mookie vs Miller, Erik: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
vs Dreyer, Jack: K
Harris, Brett vs Dreyer, Jack: OUT AIR
Knizner, Andrew vs Dreyer, Jack: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Ohtani, Shohei vs Miller, Erik: BB
Smith, Will vs Miller, Erik: K
Hernández, Teoscar vs Harris, Trent: K
Tucker, Kyle vs Harris, Trent: OUT AIR