Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-09-21

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-09-21

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-09-22 2026-09-20 →

Lane Health 2026-09-26

Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

No qualifying play

No Fangorn play cleared the parlay-probability filter today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 6 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Matt Chapman

SF vs MIN | vs Zebby Matthews

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 1.9%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.2% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Zebby Matthews, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +525 17.9% 1.9% Watch Zone

BetMGM +520 17.9% 1.8% Watch Zone

DraftKings +520 17.9% 1.8% Watch Zone

Heliot Ramos

SF vs MIN | vs Zebby Matthews

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.3%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.7% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Zebby Matthews, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +635 17.9% 4.3% Watch Zone

BetMGM +630 17.9% 4.2% Watch Zone

DraftKings +630 17.9% 4.2% Watch Zone

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs BAL | vs Shane Baz

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 4.5%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.9% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Shane Baz, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +685 17.2% 4.5% Watch Zone

BetMGM +680 17.2% 4.4% Watch Zone

FanDuel +680 17.2% 4.4% Watch Zone

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs BAL | vs Shane Baz

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 7.8%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.3% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Shane Baz, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +960 17.2% 7.8% Watch Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs BAL | vs Shane Baz

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 7.8%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.3% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Shane Baz, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +960 17.2% 7.8% Watch Zone

BetMGM +945 17.2% 7.6% Watch Zone

FanDuel +940 17.2% 7.6% Watch Zone

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs BAL | vs Shane Baz

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 4.5%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.9% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Shane Baz, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +685 17.2% 4.5% Watch Zone

FanDuel +680 17.2% 4.4% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.