Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Buxton, Byron
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team MIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.330 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.304
0.316
0.330
0.344
0.356
wOBA
0.357
0.376
0.397
0.419
0.438
ISO
0.240
0.258
0.277
0.296
0.313
K%
24.1%
25.6%
27.2%
28.8%
30.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.9%
40
Barrel%13.0%
99
Bat speed72.3
82
Exit velocity90.3
76
Hard-hit%48.0%
84
K%26.8%
28
xBA0.324
51
xSLG0.679
89
xwOBA0.331
68
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · CF
31
Arm Strength92.7 · CF
56
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
90
Range Runs2.2 · CF
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · CF
83
Bolts18.0 · CF
87
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
98
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions66.9% · rebadged research
56
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
51
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.380 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343 · validated
82
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
147 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| Sample | 239 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 521 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.337 | 0.299 to 0.365 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.226 | 0.184 to 0.311 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 8.4% | 6.3% to 10.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.1% | 40.5% to 53.4% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 27.4% | 23.1% to 33.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.5% to 10.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.248 to 0.338 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
969 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHP
2573 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 24.2% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |