Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Rocchio, Brayan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CLE
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.296 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.319 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.294
0.308
0.322
0.335
wOBA
0.347
0.367
0.388
0.410
0.430
ISO
0.113
0.127
0.144
0.161
0.176
K%
13.8%
15.1%
16.6%
18.0%
19.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.1%
54
+21 vs proj
Barrel%2.6%
20
Bat speed68.5
34
Exit velocity85.9
22
Hard-hit%34.7%
27
K%11.3%
95
+25 vs proj
xBA0.300
30
xSLG0.424
22
xwOBA0.319
59
+23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · SS
100
Arm Strength86.0 · SS
57
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
45
Range Runs1.2 · SS
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · SS
9
SB Success Rate55.6% · SS
8
Sprint Speed27.3 · SS
50
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4% · rebadged research
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
61
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.394 · validated
2
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
69
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
172 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.094 |
| Sample | 230 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 458 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.295 | 0.265 to 0.338 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.122 | 0.098 to 0.213 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 2.8% | 1.3% to 5.3% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.1% | 26.4% to 40.2% | +/- 6.9% |
| K% | 18.5% | 16.2% to 26.2% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 5.2% to 10.5% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.280 | 0.240 to 0.343 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
321 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.222 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
710 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |