Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Grisham, Trent
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYY
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
77
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.341 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.356 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.350 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.324
0.336
0.350
0.363
0.376
wOBA
0.323
0.339
0.357
0.375
0.391
ISO
0.151
0.165
0.182
0.198
0.213
K%
18.0%
19.2%
20.5%
21.8%
23.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
80
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%47.7%
85
xBA0.323
52
xSLG0.568
69
xwOBA0.356
87
BB%14.0%
94
Bat speed68.5
34
K%17.1%
79
+48 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · CF
59
Arm Strength94.5 · CF
64
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs-1.8 · CF
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · CF
13
SB Success Rate83.3% · CF
57
Sprint Speed26.6 · CF
29
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 78.3% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions68.6% · rebadged research
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
49
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
62
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
166 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| Sample | 321 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 539 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.339 | 0.301 to 0.378 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.179 | 0.128 to 0.260 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 7.3% | 4.7% to 9.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.1% | 38.6% to 51.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 26.0% | 21.0% to 30.6% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 12.5% | 10.2% to 16.4% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.271 | 0.206 to 0.310 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
791 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 9.7% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
vs RHP
2265 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 11.8% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |