Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	224	33	50	8	11	.255	.342	.469	.811
2025	78	9	14	0	3	.206	.286	.294	.580
2026	525	73	120	11	14	.263	.352	.418	.770
5 Seasons	968	134	219	24	37	.259	.343	.425	.768

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

92

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

82

Defense4 metrics

68

Speed4 metrics

76

Plate skills10 metrics

52

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.289
xwOBA current pace	0.351
xwOBA rolling p50	0.334
Observed weight	71%

xwOBA

0.308 0.320 0.334 0.347 0.359

wOBA

0.328 0.341 0.354 0.368 0.381

ISO

0.124 0.137 0.151 0.166 0.179

K%

28.5% 29.8% 31.3% 32.7% 34.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.4%

74 +30 vs proj

Exit velocity92.7

96

Hard-hit%52.6%

96 +50 vs proj

xBA0.420

100

xSLG0.699

95

xwOBA0.351

92 +43 vs proj

BB%10.7%

77 +17 vs proj

Bat speed75.7

99

K%32.1%

9 -15 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-1.7 · CF

17

Arm Strength96.2 · CF

68

Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF

96

Range Runs5.7 · CF

89

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs3.0 · CF

87

Bolts68.0 · CF

96

SB Success Rate70.6% · CF

25

Sprint Speed29.8 · CF

98

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3% · rebadged research

81

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research

64

Correct Decisions69.1% · rebadged research

79

Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated

67

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108

85

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · borderline

11

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample

29

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample

67

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample

23

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated

15

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Garrett Mitchell's tools (80) outpace production (69) by 11 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

186 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.1σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.354

xwOBA (deserved)0.351

Mitchell’s wOBA sits at 0.354, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.351 — a gap of 0.003, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 549 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Bolte, Henry ATH · R	0.55	Fly-ball rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Cruz, Oneil PIT · L	0.47	Bat speedWhiff rate	Player · Projection
Tatis Jr., Fernando SD · R	0.37	Swing lengthMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Butler, Lawrence ATH · L	0.36	Oppo rateWalk rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-09-12	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	29	2026-09-25	5 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.279

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.301 xwOBA \| 9 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K
2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-17 @ MIA0 HR \| 3 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2 BB, K

Age	28
Height	6' 2"
Weight	229 lb
Debut	2022-08-27

xwOBA Δ	+0.050
wOBA Δ	+0.053

Hitter Projections 20260.301 xwOBA \| 9 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K
2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-17 @ MIA0 HR \| 3 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2 BB, K

Garrett Mitchell

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail