Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026

Mitchell, Garrett

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.301 xwOBA
Range
0.218 to 0.342
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced regular Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
92
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
82
Defense4 metrics
68
Speed4 metrics
76
Plate skills10 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.289
xwOBA current pace0.351
xwOBA rolling p500.334
Observed weight71%
xwOBA
0.308 0.320 0.334 0.347 0.359
wOBA
0.328 0.341 0.354 0.368 0.381
ISO
0.124 0.137 0.151 0.166 0.179
K%
28.5% 29.8% 31.3% 32.7% 34.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
74 +30 vs proj
Exit velocity92.7
96
Hard-hit%52.6%
96 +50 vs proj
xBA0.420
100
xSLG0.699
95
xwOBA0.351
92 +43 vs proj
BB%10.7%
77 +17 vs proj
Bat speed75.7
99
K%32.1%
9 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.7 · CF
17
Arm Strength96.2 · CF
68
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
96
Range Runs5.7 · CF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.0 · CF
87
Bolts68.0 · CF
96
SB Success Rate70.6% · CF
25
Sprint Speed29.8 · CF
98
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
64
Correct Decisions69.1% · rebadged research
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · borderline
11
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
29
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
15
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Mitchell, Garrett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.351 2026-09-12: 0.3532026-09-13: 0.3562026-09-14: 0.3562026-09-18: 0.3572026-09-19: 0.3552026-09-20: 0.3552026-09-21: 0.3552026-09-22: 0.3552026-09-23: 0.3532026-09-24: 0.3522026-09-25: 0.3522026-09-26: 0.351 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Garrett Mitchell's tools (80) outpace production (69) by 11 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

186 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Mitchell, Garrett · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 80% of plotted batted ballsCenter 80%Right field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsOppo 10% LF 344 CF 400 RF 345 2026-03-15 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 15.02026-03-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -9.02026-03-19 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -6.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -24.02026-03-21 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA -12.02026-03-23 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 108.4 / LA 11.02026-03-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -8.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 1.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -25.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 25.02026-03-26 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 28.6 / LA 8.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · popup · EV 77.4 / LA 84.02026-03-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA -16.02026-03-28 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 4.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA -13.02026-04-01 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 78.7 / LA 16.02026-04-01 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 112.6 / LA 4.02026-04-04 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 25.02026-04-04 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 26.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 21.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 80.6 / LA -4.02026-04-04 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 23.02026-04-06 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 55.4 / LA -71.02026-04-06 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 13.02026-04-08 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 109.0 / LA 16.02026-04-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA -1.02026-04-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 6.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 22.02026-04-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -26.02026-04-17 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 16.02026-04-17 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 52.8 / LA -59.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -4.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 0.02026-04-21 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 13.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.2 / LA 77.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA -40.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -11.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -32.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.2 / LA -26.02026-04-25 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.4 / LA 65.02026-04-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -28.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.2 / LA -35.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 38.02026-04-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -1.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · popup · EV 49.8 / LA 78.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.3 / LA 32.02026-04-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 1.02026-04-30 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA -33.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -28.02026-05-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -25.02026-05-01 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 21.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 35.02026-05-02 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 17.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -2.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -49.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 1.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -16.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 16.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 50.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA -4.02026-05-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.6 / LA 0.02026-05-09 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 11.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 44.02026-05-10 · sac fly · SL · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 20.02026-05-10 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 8.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -34.02026-05-14 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 24.02026-05-14 · fielders choice out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.8 / LA -26.02026-05-14 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.0 / LA -31.02026-05-14 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 34.02026-05-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.9 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 42.02026-05-17 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 115.5 / LA 20.02026-05-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 1.02026-05-19 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -16.02026-05-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -25.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -6.02026-05-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 5.02026-05-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 21.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -45.02026-05-25 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -8.02026-05-26 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 27.02026-05-27 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 15.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 36.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -20.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -7.02026-06-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -4.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -1.02026-06-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 1.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 10.02026-06-07 · triple · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 26.02026-06-07 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 23.02026-06-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 21.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -31.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA -30.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 12.02026-06-22 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 4.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 34.02026-06-24 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 88.8 / LA 15.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -19.02026-06-26 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 35.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -16.02026-06-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.1 / LA -4.02026-06-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 69.8 / LA 21.02026-07-01 · triple · SL · line_drive · EV 106.0 / LA 15.02026-07-01 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 21.02026-07-01 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 16.02026-07-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -5.02026-07-27 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA -8.02026-07-27 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -9.02026-07-31 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 111.3 / LA 7.02026-07-31 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 109.9 / LA 21.02026-07-31 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 109.2 / LA 18.02026-08-02 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.5 / LA -26.02026-08-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 59.6 / LA -82.02026-08-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA -11.02026-08-05 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -12.02026-08-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -27.02026-08-07 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -17.02026-08-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -27.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 63.3 / LA 8.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 14.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 57.02026-08-08 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -45.02026-08-11 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA 1.02026-08-11 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -59.02026-08-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 10.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.2 / LA 68.02026-08-13 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 35.02026-08-13 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 51.5 / LA -83.02026-08-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.7 / LA -55.02026-08-26 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 13.02026-08-26 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 2.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA 9.02026-08-29 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA -19.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -5.02026-08-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 7.02026-08-30 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -8.02026-08-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -8.02026-08-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.7 / LA 13.02026-08-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 112.3 / LA 2.02026-09-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 10.02026-09-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 60.9 / LA 37.02026-09-04 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 14.02026-09-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA -26.02026-09-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -6.02026-09-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 11.02026-09-06 · triple · SL · line_drive · EV 109.2 / LA 21.02026-09-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -3.02026-09-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 111.0 / LA 9.02026-09-07 · double play · FF · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 6.02026-09-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 13.02026-09-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA -54.02026-09-09 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 7.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 19.02026-09-11 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -2.02026-09-11 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 24.02026-09-11 · field out · EP · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -6.02026-09-11 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 110.5 / LA 2.02026-09-12 · field out · FS · popup · EV 82.1 / LA 72.02026-09-12 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 20.02026-09-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 5.02026-09-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 7.02026-09-12 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 33.02026-09-17 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 17.02026-09-18 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.0 / LA -23.02026-09-18 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -8.02026-09-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -24.02026-09-20 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 4.02026-09-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 6.02026-09-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 58.0 / LA 35.02026-09-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 21.02026-09-23 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 2.02026-09-23 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.1 / LA -46.02026-09-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -66.02026-09-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -38.02026-09-25 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 14.02026-09-25 · sac bunt · ST · ground_ball · EV 33.6 / LA -37.02026-09-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -9.02026-09-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 5.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Mitchell, Garrett · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 76.5 mph Hard swing rate 73% Whiff / swing 46% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mitchell, Garrett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 23%23%Whiff: 33%33%Zone contact: 77%77%Contact: 67%67%Hard hit: 53%53% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.050
wOBA Δ+0.053
Sample549 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances275----
Home Runs9----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3010.218 to 0.342+/- 0.062
ISO0.1570.071 to 0.234+/- 0.081
Barrel%4.4%1.7% to 6.8%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%37.7%29.0% to 49.0%+/- 10.0%
K%27.9%21.7% to 36.2%+/- 7.3%
BB%9.3%4.8% to 11.8%+/- 3.5%
BABIP0.3060.195 to 0.367+/- 0.086
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

99 career PA

xwOBA0.163
K%19.0%
BB%5.3%
Barrel1.9%
vs RHP

431 career PA

xwOBA0.185
K%19.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel2.7%