Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Mitchell, Garrett
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
85
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.274
0.291
0.311
0.330
0.347
wOBA
0.318
0.337
0.358
0.380
0.399
ISO
0.104
0.124
0.147
0.169
0.189
K%
28.8%
30.7%
32.9%
35.1%
37.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
74
+33 vs proj
Exit velocity91.9
91
Hard-hit%49.6%
89
+49 vs proj
xBA0.393
95
xSLG0.692
91
xwOBA0.331
68
+27 vs proj
BB%12.6%
85
+29 vs proj
Bat speed74.5
96
K%36.4%
2
-20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.7 · CF
9
Arm Strength96.0 · CF
79
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
89
Range Runs1.8 · CF
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · CF
80
Bolts22.0 · CF
86
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
32
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
97
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.2% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions69.9% · rebadged research
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
74
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
37
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
100 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.057 |
| Sample | 231 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 275 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.218 to 0.342 | +/- 0.062 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.071 to 0.234 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 1.7% to 6.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.7% | 29.0% to 49.0% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 27.9% | 21.7% to 36.2% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 4.8% to 11.8% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.306 | 0.195 to 0.367 | +/- 0.086 |
vs LHP
99 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.163 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |
vs RHP
431 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.185 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |