Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Wilson, Jacob
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
17
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.285 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.288
0.301
0.314
0.326
wOBA
0.305
0.323
0.344
0.364
0.382
ISO
0.101
0.114
0.129
0.144
0.157
K%
7.9%
8.9%
10.1%
11.2%
12.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.2%
5
Exit velocity84.2
12
Hard-hit%30.8%
16
xBA0.307
32
xSLG0.390
10
xwOBA0.285
27
-30 vs proj
BB%4.4%
10
Bat speed62.3
2
K%10.8%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
51
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
84
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
96
Range Runs5.7 · SS
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · SS
15
Sprint Speed27.1 · SS
42
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.6% · rebadged research
14
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
168 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.028 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.031 |
| Sample | 251 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 480 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.297 to 0.362 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.148 | 0.121 to 0.227 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 1.0% to 4.5% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.1% | 25.5% to 35.3% | +/- 4.9% |
| K% | 7.6% | 7.0% to 14.5% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 5.7% | 4.5% to 9.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.293 to 0.343 | +/- 0.025 |
vs LHP
148 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 5.5% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
498 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.224 |
| K% | 5.3% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |