Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
None
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
24
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.272 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.280 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.277 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.228
0.251
0.277
0.302
0.326
wOBA
0.296
0.312
0.330
0.348
0.365
ISO
0.070
0.087
0.106
0.125
0.142
K%
15.1%
17.9%
21.1%
24.2%
27.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.7%
3
-32 vs proj
Exit velocity85.1
18
Hard-hit%34.2%
29
xBA0.329
59
xSLG0.410
15
xwOBA0.280
23
-20 vs proj
BB%5.9%
20
-17 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
13
K%21.1%
59
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
66
Arm Strength85.9 · CF
6
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs-1.3 · CF
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · CF
65
Bolts45.0 · CF
95
SB Success Rate72.7% · CF
29
Sprint Speed29.5 · CF
96
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.7% · rebadged research
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6% · rebadged research
20
Correct Decisions63.1% · rebadged research
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
14
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
24
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
59
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
89
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
168 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.030 |
| Sample | 304 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 201 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.118 to 0.333 | +/- 0.108 |
| ISO | 0.126 | 0.034 to 0.196 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 5.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.0% | 11.8% to 38.4% | +/- 13.3% |
| K% | 25.2% | 6.9% to 34.4% | +/- 13.7% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 0.6% to 9.6% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.171 to 0.358 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |