Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Hamilton, David
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.264 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.276 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.259
0.276
0.293
0.308
wOBA
0.314
0.332
0.352
0.372
0.390
ISO
0.094
0.113
0.133
0.154
0.173
K%
19.7%
21.3%
23.2%
25.1%
26.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
23
Exit velocity79.6
2
Hard-hit%29.9%
15
xBA0.277
13
xSLG0.401
13
xwOBA0.264
13
-15 vs proj
BB%9.0%
55
+19 vs proj
Bat speed63.5
3
K%21.9%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.8 · 3B
75
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
18
Range Runs-4.3 · 3B
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · 3B
87
Bolts41.0 · 3B
95
SB Success Rate81.2% · 3B
49
Sprint Speed29.4 · 3B
95
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5% · rebadged research
21
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
88
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.392 · validated
6
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
134 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.065 |
| Sample | 256 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 338 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.229 to 0.342 | +/- 0.057 |
| ISO | 0.147 | 0.087 to 0.249 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 3.9% | 2.3% to 7.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.1% | 23.9% to 43.8% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 23.9% | 19.1% to 32.4% | +/- 6.7% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 4.2% to 10.3% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.265 | 0.203 to 0.319 | +/- 0.058 |
vs LHP
79 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |
vs RHP
510 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.185 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |