Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Hamilton, David
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.284 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.247
0.265
0.284
0.304
0.321
wOBA
0.322
0.344
0.369
0.393
0.415
ISO
0.082
0.104
0.128
0.153
0.175
K%
17.6%
19.5%
21.6%
23.7%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.7%
62
+28 vs proj
Barrel%2.8%
23
Bat speed62.5
3
Exit velocity78.3
1
Hard-hit%31.2%
17
K%17.6%
77
+39 vs proj
xBA0.273
12
xSLG0.385
12
xwOBA0.277
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.6 · 3B
79
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-3.2 · 3B
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · SS
78
Bolts29.0 · SS
94
SB Success Rate85.7% · SS
66
Sprint Speed29.4 · SS
95
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
37
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.407 · validated
2
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
121 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.082 |
| Sample | 176 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 338 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.229 to 0.342 | +/- 0.057 |
| ISO | 0.147 | 0.087 to 0.249 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 3.9% | 2.3% to 7.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.1% | 23.9% to 43.8% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 23.9% | 19.1% to 32.4% | +/- 6.7% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 4.2% to 10.3% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.265 | 0.203 to 0.319 | +/- 0.058 |
vs LHP
79 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |
vs RHP
510 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.185 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |