Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026

Mangum, Jake

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.290 xwOBA
Range
0.253 to 0.326
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
20
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
23
Defense4 metrics
54
Speed4 metrics
70
Plate skills10 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.274
xwOBA current pace0.284
xwOBA rolling p500.281
Observed weight69%
xwOBA
0.260 0.270 0.281 0.292 0.302
wOBA
0.307 0.320 0.334 0.349 0.362
ISO
0.072 0.083 0.095 0.107 0.118
K%
16.3% 17.4% 18.7% 20.0% 21.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.6%
8
Exit velocity83.4
9
Hard-hit%28.1%
11 -21 vs proj
xBA0.314
44
xSLG0.421
21
xwOBA0.284
29
BB%5.1%
15
Bat speed64.8
6
K%20.0%
67 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · CF
56
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
84
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs0.5 · CF
52
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · CF
68
Bolts65.0 · CF
95
SB Success Rate68.4% · CF
22
Sprint Speed29.6 · CF
96
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.5% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
64
Correct Decisions60.9% · rebadged research
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
14
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
51
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
73
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334 · validated
89
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Mangum, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.284 2026-09-12: 0.2852026-09-13: 0.2832026-09-14: 0.2872026-09-18: 0.2882026-09-19: 0.2882026-09-20: 0.2882026-09-21: 0.2892026-09-22: 0.2892026-09-23: 0.2892026-09-24: 0.2872026-09-25: 0.2872026-09-26: 0.284 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Mangum's production (82) outpaces the tools grade (73) by 9 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-10.0° Current 30° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

193 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Mangum, Jake · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 77% of plotted batted ballsCenter 77%Right field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsOppo 9% LF 325 CF 399 RF 320 2026-03-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 37.02026-03-17 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA -6.02026-03-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 8.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -28.02026-03-20 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 68.8 / LA 17.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · popup · EV 73.0 / LA 80.02026-03-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA -8.02026-03-22 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 9.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -42.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 10.02026-03-28 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -3.02026-03-28 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -1.02026-03-29 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 29.0 / LA -50.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA -2.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 1.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · popup · EV 71.5 / LA 63.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -11.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 82.5 / LA 17.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-04-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -23.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 60.0 / LA -38.02026-04-04 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA -37.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 87.8 / LA 16.02026-04-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 29.9 / LA 5.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 46.02026-04-05 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -13.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 40.3 / LA -60.02026-04-07 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 12.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 28.02026-04-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 52.9 / LA 11.02026-04-13 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA -17.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -2.02026-04-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 12.02026-04-13 · field out · FC · popup · EV 58.5 / LA 61.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 24.02026-04-14 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 3.02026-04-16 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 1.02026-04-16 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -8.02026-04-16 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -3.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 41.02026-04-16 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 71.6 / LA 37.02026-04-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 26.6 / LA -45.02026-04-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 10.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.0 / LA -43.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 36.02026-04-21 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 14.02026-04-21 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 0.02026-04-21 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 15.02026-04-22 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 60.9 / LA -58.02026-04-25 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA -2.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -9.02026-04-26 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 4.02026-04-27 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 58.6 / LA -70.02026-04-27 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 80.0 / LA 8.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -6.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 15.02026-04-28 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 8.02026-04-29 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 4.02026-04-30 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -72.02026-04-30 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 59.3 / LA -45.02026-05-05 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 83.8 / LA -1.02026-05-05 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 35.4 / LA 27.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.7 / LA 66.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 55.02026-05-20 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 3.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 10.02026-05-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 59.4 / LA -66.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 23.02026-05-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 2.02026-05-21 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 9.02026-05-21 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 67.7 / LA -38.02026-05-22 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 36.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -11.02026-05-22 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 37.5 / LA -49.02026-05-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -8.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -19.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 33.02026-05-24 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 3.02026-05-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -14.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.6 / LA -79.02026-05-31 · sac fly · ST · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 25.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 37.02026-05-31 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -4.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 23.02026-06-04 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA 8.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 35.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 8.02026-06-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -44.02026-06-07 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 58.8 / LA 14.02026-06-07 · field out · FC · popup · EV 85.4 / LA 69.02026-06-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 2.02026-06-15 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 67.8 / LA 38.02026-06-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -17.02026-06-15 · field out · ST · popup · EV 52.5 / LA 35.02026-06-20 · fielders choice out · CH · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -15.02026-06-20 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -17.02026-06-20 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 83.9 / LA 17.02026-06-24 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 60.3 / LA -20.02026-06-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 5.02026-06-24 · field out · SL · popup · EV 75.5 / LA 64.02026-06-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -8.02026-06-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA -7.02026-06-26 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -12.02026-07-01 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 75.8 / LA 35.02026-07-01 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 5.02026-07-01 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 9.02026-07-27 · fielders choice out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -29.02026-07-27 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 11.02026-07-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA 5.02026-07-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA -18.02026-07-31 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -8.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 38.02026-07-31 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 22.02026-08-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 32.02026-08-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 16.02026-08-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA -8.02026-08-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 16.02026-08-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -16.02026-08-07 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 31.02026-08-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 15.02026-08-07 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 31.0 / LA 38.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 3.02026-08-08 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 64.3 / LA 27.02026-08-08 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 24.02026-08-08 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 28.02026-08-11 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -1.02026-08-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 18.3 / LA 56.02026-08-13 · triple · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 25.02026-08-13 · single · FA · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 10.02026-08-13 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA 4.02026-08-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 97.6 / LA 17.02026-08-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -36.02026-08-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 47.6 / LA 59.02026-08-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -13.02026-08-15 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 14.02026-08-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 73.7 / LA 23.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -15.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 38.02026-08-16 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 69.1 / LA 35.02026-08-16 · field out · CU · popup · EV 79.5 / LA 62.02026-08-17 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 27.02026-08-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -44.02026-08-21 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 19.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA -1.02026-08-24 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 39.3 / LA -21.02026-08-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -1.02026-08-26 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -46.02026-08-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.3 / LA -8.02026-08-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -8.02026-08-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -11.02026-08-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 8.02026-08-29 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 2.02026-08-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 61.2 / LA -74.02026-08-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -3.02026-09-01 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.9 / LA -30.02026-09-02 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 25.02026-09-02 · single · SI · ground_ball2026-09-02 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 18.02026-09-03 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 24.8 / LA -9.02026-09-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -2.02026-09-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 58.1 / LA -69.02026-09-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 6.02026-09-04 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 7.02026-09-05 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -11.02026-09-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 36.02026-09-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 27.02026-09-08 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 16.02026-09-08 · double play · CU · line_drive · EV 72.1 / LA 9.02026-09-08 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 71.5 / LA 31.02026-09-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 34.02026-09-08 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -17.02026-09-10 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.2 / LA 63.02026-09-10 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -30.02026-09-10 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 84.1 / LA 20.02026-09-11 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 66.6 / LA -17.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.6 / LA 16.02026-09-11 · single · CH · ground_ball2026-09-11 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 35.02026-09-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 81.4 / LA 27.02026-09-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 36.02026-09-12 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -22.02026-09-13 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 23.02026-09-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 14.02026-09-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -50.02026-09-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -51.02026-09-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 84.6 / LA 25.02026-09-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -32.02026-09-25 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -27.02026-09-25 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 4.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mangum, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 45%45%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 28%28% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.006
wOBA Δ+0.044
Sample489 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances419----
Home Runs8----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2900.253 to 0.326+/- 0.037
ISO0.0980.066 to 0.197+/- 0.065
Barrel%2.3%1.2% to 4.3%+/- 1.5%
Hard-Hit%34.4%26.0% to 42.9%+/- 8.4%
K%15.0%11.1% to 22.8%+/- 5.9%
BB%5.5%2.8% to 8.3%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.3200.293 to 0.366+/- 0.036
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

143 career PA

xwOBA0.171
K%9.9%
BB%2.6%
Barrel1.1%
vs RHP

320 career PA

xwOBA0.175
K%10.0%
BB%3.2%
Barrel1.6%