Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Mangum, Jake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.274 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.290 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.250
0.264
0.280
0.296
0.310
wOBA
0.300
0.325
0.353
0.380
0.406
ISO
0.046
0.066
0.087
0.109
0.129
K%
13.6%
15.5%
17.6%
19.8%
21.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
26
Barrel%0.7%
4
Bat speed63.7
4
Exit velocity80.5
2
Hard-hit%25.5%
7
-20 vs proj
K%20.9%
58
-28 vs proj
xBA0.325
53
xSLG0.410
17
xwOBA0.290
32
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · LF
65
Arm Strength88.9 · LF
20
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
8
Range Runs-0.5 · LF
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · LF
68
Bolts7.0 · LF
67
SB Success Rate83.3% · LF
60
Sprint Speed29.1 · LF
93
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 48.5% · rebadged research
4
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions58.2% · rebadged research
6
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
43
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
24
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.327 · validated
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
87 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.000 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.062 |
| Sample | 134 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 419 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.253 to 0.326 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.098 | 0.066 to 0.197 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 1.2% to 4.3% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.4% | 26.0% to 42.9% | +/- 8.4% |
| K% | 15.0% | 11.1% to 22.8% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 2.8% to 8.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.320 | 0.293 to 0.366 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
143 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.171 |
| K% | 9.9% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |
vs RHP
320 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.175 |
| K% | 10.0% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |