Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Mangum, Jake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
19
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.274 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.291 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.284 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.258
0.270
0.284
0.297
0.309
wOBA
0.337
0.355
0.374
0.394
0.412
ISO
0.061
0.076
0.093
0.109
0.124
K%
13.8%
15.2%
16.9%
18.5%
20.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
5
Exit velocity82.3
5
Hard-hit%27.1%
10
-19 vs proj
xBA0.319
47
xSLG0.407
14
xwOBA0.291
33
BB%5.2%
14
Bat speed64.2
4
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · CF
50
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs0.5 · CF
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · CF
78
Bolts28.0 · CF
88
SB Success Rate76.9% · CF
39
Sprint Speed29.3 · CF
94
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.8% · rebadged research
4
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
57
Correct Decisions57.3% · rebadged research
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
30
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
69
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
59
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329 · validated
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
110 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.084 |
| Sample | 269 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 419 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.253 to 0.326 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.098 | 0.066 to 0.197 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 1.2% to 4.3% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.4% | 26.0% to 42.9% | +/- 8.4% |
| K% | 14.9% | 11.1% to 22.8% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 2.8% to 8.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.320 | 0.293 to 0.366 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
143 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.171 |
| K% | 9.9% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |
vs RHP
320 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.175 |
| K% | 10.0% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |