Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Marsee, Jakob
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.296 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.283
0.298
0.314
0.331
0.346
wOBA
0.262
0.279
0.298
0.317
0.335
ISO
0.101
0.118
0.136
0.155
0.172
K%
19.7%
21.1%
22.7%
24.2%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.5%
83
+48 vs proj
Barrel%2.3%
18
-31 vs proj
Bat speed67.7
25
Exit velocity85.3
17
Hard-hit%36.3%
34
K%23.3%
40
-23 vs proj
xBA0.291
23
xSLG0.423
21
xwOBA0.296
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
26
Arm Strength95.0 · CF
72
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
96
Range Runs3.2 · CF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · CF
87
SB Success Rate71.4% · CF
29
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
67
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.4% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
37
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
9
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
30
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.302 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331 · validated
94
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
151 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| Sample | 257 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 320 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.259 to 0.368 | +/- 0.054 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.107 to 0.250 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 2.6% to 7.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.0% | 28.1% to 47.7% | +/- 9.8% |
| K% | 19.7% | 14.8% to 25.0% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.4% to 11.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.273 to 0.353 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
82 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 11.1% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.181 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |