Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Marsee, Jakob
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
34
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.314 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.320 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.308
0.320
0.332
0.342
wOBA
0.306
0.317
0.330
0.342
0.354
ISO
0.117
0.128
0.139
0.151
0.162
K%
18.7%
19.7%
20.7%
21.8%
22.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.4%
16
-36 vs proj
Exit velocity85.3
23
Hard-hit%34.5%
33
-16 vs proj
xBA0.309
39
xSLG0.442
28
xwOBA0.314
62
BB%12.4%
89
+50 vs proj
Bat speed66.4
15
K%20.3%
65
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.4 · CF
10
Arm Strength97.7 · CF
80
Outs Above Avg9.0 · CF
98
Range Runs8.3 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · CF
56
SB Success Rate63.6% · CF
17
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.7% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions69.8% · rebadged research
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.309 · validated
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · borderline
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
22
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.326 · validated
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
281 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.024 |
| Sample | 629 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 320 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.259 to 0.368 | +/- 0.054 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.107 to 0.250 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 2.6% to 7.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.0% | 28.1% to 47.7% | +/- 9.8% |
| K% | 19.9% | 14.8% to 25.0% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.4% to 11.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.273 to 0.353 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
82 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 11.1% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.181 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |