Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment
Protected takes / Chase risk
Arenado, Nolan
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
percentile
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.299 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Nolan Arenado's tools (78) outpace production (74) by 5 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.
Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs
Protected takes / Chase riskField-coordinate spray profile
279 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.069 |
| Sample | 605 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 492 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.295 | 0.265 to 0.347 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.105 to 0.228 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 2.1% to 5.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.7% | 29.7% to 40.7% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 15.4% | 12.5% to 19.9% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 4.7% to 9.6% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.248 to 0.322 | +/- 0.037 |
1656 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
5032 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |