Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Arenado, Nolan
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.295 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.272
0.284
0.297
0.310
0.322
wOBA
0.315
0.330
0.347
0.364
0.379
ISO
0.138
0.152
0.167
0.182
0.195
K%
16.0%
17.1%
18.2%
19.4%
20.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48
+22 vs proj
Exit velocity85.3
20
Hard-hit%33.2%
25
xBA0.307
32
xSLG0.471
35
xwOBA0.295
38
BB%8.3%
47
+19 vs proj
Bat speed69.3
44
K%20.5%
62
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.6 · 3B
30
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
89
Range Runs2.8 · 3B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 3B
16
Sprint Speed25.3 · 3B
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions63.2% · rebadged research
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
47
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
29
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.000 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.051 |
| Sample | 361 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 492 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.295 | 0.265 to 0.347 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.105 to 0.228 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 2.1% to 5.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.7% | 29.7% to 40.7% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 15.4% | 12.5% to 19.9% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 4.7% to 9.6% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.248 to 0.322 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
1656 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
5032 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |