Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Arenado, Nolan
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.316 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.287
0.301
0.316
0.331
0.345
wOBA
0.351
0.372
0.394
0.417
0.437
ISO
0.135
0.152
0.170
0.189
0.206
K%
13.6%
14.8%
16.1%
17.4%
18.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
48
+21 vs proj
Barrel%4.7%
44
+16 vs proj
Bat speed69.3
44
Exit velocity85.6
19
Hard-hit%32.2%
21
K%17.8%
76
xBA0.339
64
xSLG0.520
53
xwOBA0.333
70
+33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.0 · 3B
29
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs0.3 · 3B
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 3B
16
Sprint Speed25.4 · 3B
10
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.5% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6% · rebadged research
19
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
40
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
151 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.037 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.099 |
| Sample | 214 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 492 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.295 | 0.265 to 0.347 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.105 to 0.228 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 2.1% to 5.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.7% | 29.7% to 40.7% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 15.4% | 12.5% to 19.9% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 4.7% to 9.6% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.248 to 0.322 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
1656 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
5032 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |