Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-06-02 · saved artifact ROWS 54 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 1.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-06-01

Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn experimental Valinor experimental

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Aaron JudgeNYY	NYY vs CLEJoey Cantillo	P 76.8 F 84.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 83.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	84.7%Over prob · Fangorn	81.1%no-vig	--	3.6288count	0.7677prob	1.5312proj	1.084context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
02	Anthony SantanderTOR	TOR vs ATLBryce Elder	P 29.3 F 28.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 28.1 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Under 1.5	71.3%Under prob · Fangorn	70.0%no-vig	--	0.9046count	0.2926prob	0.4174proj	1.021context	DraftKings 225 avg 1 books
03	Josh SmithTEX	TEX vs STLDustin May	P 23.3 F 20.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 24.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Under 2.5 3 of 3	79.1%Under prob · Fangorn	74.7%no-vig	--	1.6011count	0.4645prob	0.9338proj	1.009context	DraftKings 310 avg 1 books
04	Trea TurnerPHI	PHI vs SDRandy Vásquez	P 69.6 F 84.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 83.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	84.3%Over prob · Fangorn	82.0%no-vig	--	2.789count	0.696prob	1.5613proj	1.085context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
05	Oneil CruzPIT	PIT vs HOUMike Burrows	P 24.8 F 23.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 23.2 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.4%Under prob · Fangorn	73.5%no-vig	--	1.6869count	0.4955prob	0.8466proj	0.935context	DraftKings 285 avg 1 books
06	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR	TOR vs ATLBryce Elder	P 67.1 F 80.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 83.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	80.0%Over prob · Fangorn	79.5%no-vig	--	2.6732count	0.6706prob	1.4405proj	1.021context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
07	Corey SeagerTEX	TEX vs STLDustin May	P 48.2 F 47.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 47.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	47.6%Over prob · Fangorn	78.9%no-vig	--	2.9023count	0.691prob	1.4147proj	1.009context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
08	Bobby Witt Jr.KC	KC vs CINAndrew Abbott	P 49.2 F 50.4 EXPERIMENTAL V 49.2 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	50.4%Over prob · Fangorn	81.0%no-vig	--	2.8934count	0.7197prob	1.5009proj	0.955context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
09	Cody BellingerNYY	NYY vs CLEJoey Cantillo	P 67.6 F 81.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 80.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	81.7%Over prob · Fangorn	78.9%no-vig	--	2.6916count	0.6759prob	1.4169proj	1.084context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
10	Alec BohmPHI	PHI vs SDRandy Vásquez	P 63.1 F 79.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 82.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	79.1%Over prob · Fangorn	78.1%no-vig	--	2.3667count	0.6313prob	1.3671proj	1.085context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
11	Manny MachadoSD	SD vs PHIAaron Nola	P 65.6 F 78.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 82.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	78.9%Over prob · Fangorn	77.9%no-vig	--	2.6394count	0.6557prob	1.3749proj	1.019context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
12	Jarren DuranBOS	BOS vs BALShane Baz	P 72.0 F 83.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 82.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	83.3%Over prob · Fangorn	80.0%no-vig	--	2.8151count	0.72prob	1.4728proj	1.089context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
13	Matt OlsonATL	ATL vs TORKevin Gausman	P 69.8 F 81.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 80.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	81.5%Over prob · Fangorn	77.6%no-vig	--	2.9066count	0.6976prob	1.3811proj	1.06context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
14	Austin RileyATL	ATL vs TORKevin Gausman	P 65.2 F 79.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 78.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	79.3%Over prob · Fangorn	76.0%no-vig	--	2.534count	0.652prob	1.2928proj	1.06context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
15	Jackson MerrillSD	SD vs PHIAaron Nola	P 67.7 F 81.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 80.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	81.3%Over prob · Fangorn	78.6%no-vig	--	2.6752count	0.6771prob	1.3932proj	1.019context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
16	Bryce HarperPHI	PHI vs SDRandy Vásquez	P 48.0 F 48.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 47.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.6%Over prob · Fangorn	78.9%no-vig	--	2.8915count	0.696prob	1.4261proj	1.085context	FanDuel 300 avg 1 books
17	Fernando Tatis Jr.SD	SD vs PHIAaron Nola	P 64.8 F 81.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 79.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	81.0%Over prob · Fangorn	76.5%no-vig	--	2.551count	0.6475prob	1.3264proj	1.019context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
18	Ozzie AlbiesATL	ATL vs TORKevin Gausman	P 62.1 F 77.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 76.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	77.1%Over prob · Fangorn	75.7%no-vig	--	2.3741count	0.6208prob	1.2921proj	1.06context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
19	Nick CastellanosSD	SD vs PHIAaron Nola	P 61.8 F 77.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 76.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	77.3%Over prob · Fangorn	74.7%no-vig	--	2.3299count	0.6175prob	1.2456proj	1.019context	FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
20	Nick KurtzATH	ATH vs CHCJameson Taillon	P 48.2 F 47.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 47.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	47.6%Over prob · Fangorn	76.5%no-vig	--	2.9944count	0.7255prob	1.3118proj	0.913context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
21	George SpringerTOR	TOR vs ATLBryce Elder	P 63.0 F 80.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 78.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	80.0%Over prob · Fangorn	75.6%no-vig	--	2.4739count	0.6301prob	1.2909proj	1.021context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
22	Michael Harris IIATL	ATL vs TORKevin Gausman	P 57.5 F 75.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 74.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	75.1%Over prob · Fangorn	72.6%no-vig	--	2.137count	0.5747prob	1.1715proj	1.06context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
23	Chandler SimpsonTB	TB vs DETJack Flaherty	P 26.7 F 48.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 52.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.7%Over prob · Fangorn	75.9%no-vig	--	1.7656count	0.5114prob	1.2928proj	0.983context	FanDuel 350 avg 1 books
24	Brandon MarshPHI	PHI vs SDRandy Vásquez	P 57.7 F 77.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 75.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	77.2%Over prob · Fangorn	72.2%no-vig	--	2.1268count	0.5773prob	1.1619proj	1.085context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
25	Jonathan ArandaTB	TB vs DETJack Flaherty	P 59.8 F 79.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 77.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	79.0%Over prob · Fangorn	74.7%no-vig	--	2.2236count	0.5978prob	1.2318proj	0.983context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
26	Jake MangumPIT	PIT vs HOUMike Burrows	P 24.5 F 22.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 25.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	22.1%Over prob · Fangorn	72.6%no-vig	--	1.6736count	0.4787prob	1.1718proj	0.935context	DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
27	Junior CamineroTB	TB vs DETJack Flaherty	P 61.0 F 74.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 72.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	74.1%Over prob · Fangorn	70.4%no-vig	--	2.3613count	0.61prob	1.1104proj	0.983context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
28	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs SDRandy Vásquez	P 51.5 F 73.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 72.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	73.5%Over prob · Fangorn	70.4%no-vig	--	1.8587count	0.5155prob	1.1079proj	1.085context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
29	Nathan LukesTOR	TOR vs ATLBryce Elder	P 54.0 F 69.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 73.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.6%Over prob · Fangorn	69.0%no-vig	--	1.9033count	0.5396prob	1.0671proj	1.021context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
30	Kyle SchwarberPHI	PHI vs SDRandy Vásquez	P 45.3 F 44.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 43.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	44.1%Over prob · Fangorn	70.9%no-vig	--	2.8182count	0.6474prob	1.1526proj	1.085context	FanDuel 195 avg 1 books
31	Masataka YoshidaBOS	BOS vs BALShane Baz	P 54.9 F 73.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 73.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	73.7%Over prob · Fangorn	72.5%no-vig	--	1.9723count	0.549prob	1.1553proj	1.089context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
32	Willson ContrerasBOS	BOS vs BALShane Baz	P 61.9 F 78.4 EXPERIMENTAL V 76.8 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	78.4%Over prob · Fangorn	73.6%no-vig	--	2.3686count	0.619prob	1.2098proj	1.089context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
33	Paul GoldschmidtNYY	NYY vs CLEJoey Cantillo	P 56.7 F 73.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 76.4 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	73.0%Over prob · Fangorn	72.5%no-vig	--	2.0951count	0.5671prob	1.1644proj	1.084context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
34	Vinnie PasquantinoKC	KC vs CINAndrew Abbott	P 60.0 F 58.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 61.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	58.2%Over prob · Fangorn	72.1%no-vig	--	2.2439count	0.5999prob	1.1551proj	0.955context	FanDuel -155 avg 1 books
35	Marcus SemienNYM	NYM vs SEALogan Gilbert	P 55.9 F 56.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 55.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	56.5%Over prob · Fangorn	70.9%no-vig	--	2.0664count	0.5587prob	1.1264proj	1.038context	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
36	Jorge PolancoNYM	NYM vs SEALogan Gilbert	P 37.9 F 37.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 37.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	37.9%Over prob · Fangorn	72.5%no-vig	--	2.3315count	0.6055prob	1.1693proj	1.038context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
37	Wilyer AbreuBOS	BOS vs BALShane Baz	P 60.4 F 76.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 74.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	76.3%Over prob · Fangorn	71.7%no-vig	--	2.3175count	0.6042prob	1.1407proj	1.089context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
38	Daulton VarshoTOR	TOR vs ATLBryce Elder	P 61.3 F 72.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 70.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	72.0%Over prob · Fangorn	67.9%no-vig	--	2.2698count	0.613prob	1.0441proj	1.021context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
39	Cedric MullinsTB	TB vs DETJack Flaherty	P 53.2 F 69.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 67.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.1%Over prob · Fangorn	65.1%no-vig	--	1.912count	0.5323prob	0.9732proj	0.983context	FanDuel 195 avg 1 books
40	Mike YastrzemskiATL	ATL vs TORKevin Gausman	P 56.8 F 70.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 69.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	70.3%Over prob · Fangorn	67.4%no-vig	--	2.0802count	0.5682prob	1.0306proj	1.06context	FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
41	Xander BogaertsSD	SD vs PHIAaron Nola	P 51.8 F 71.4 EXPERIMENTAL V 71.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	71.4%Over prob · Fangorn	70.3%no-vig	--	1.8419count	0.5176prob	1.0891proj	1.019context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
42	Maikel GarciaKC	KC vs CINAndrew Abbott	P 50.0 F 52.4 EXPERIMENTAL V 50.8 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	52.4%Over prob · Fangorn	68.4%no-vig	--	1.7197count	0.5prob	1.0424proj	0.955context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
43	Mike TroutLAA	LAA vs COLTomoyuki Sugano	P 55.9 F 55.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 55.1 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	55.9%Over prob · Fangorn	65.6%no-vig	--	2.0836count	0.5593prob	0.9863proj	0.923context	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
44	J.t. RealmutoPHI	PHI vs SDRandy Vásquez	P 53.9 F 70.8 EXPERIMENTAL V 70.4 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	70.8%Over prob · Fangorn	69.9%no-vig	--	1.9536count	0.5395prob	1.081proj	1.085context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
45	Gavin SheetsSD	SD vs PHIAaron Nola	P 26.5 F 51.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 49.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	51.3%Over prob · Fangorn	64.9%no-vig	--	1.7511count	0.4891prob	0.9526proj	1.019context	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
46	Harrison BaderSF	SF vs MILKyle Harrison	P 24.7 F 26.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 25.1 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	26.5%Over prob · Fangorn	64.9%no-vig	--	1.6694count	0.4751prob	0.94proj	0.951context	DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
47	Ryan JeffersMIN	MIN vs CWSDavis Martin	P 49.9 F 51.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 49.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	51.1%Over prob · Fangorn	64.3%no-vig	--	1.7447count	0.499prob	0.9326proj	0.998context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
48	Brett BatyNYM	NYM vs SEALogan Gilbert	P 47.9 F 50.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 48.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	50.3%Over prob · Fangorn	65.1%no-vig	--	1.7436count	0.4788prob	0.9549proj	1.038context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
49	Casey SchmittSF	SF vs MILKyle Harrison	P 24.1 F 22.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 25.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	22.3%Over prob · Fangorn	61.7%no-vig	--	1.639count	0.4713prob	0.8733proj	0.951context	DraftKings 300 avg 1 books
50	Kyle ManzardoCLE	CLE vs NYYCam Schlittler	P 45.3 F 60.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 63.4 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	60.0%Over prob · Fangorn	59.9%no-vig	--	1.6701count	0.4534prob	0.8529proj	0.928context	FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
51	Jeff McNeilATH	ATH vs CHCJameson Taillon	P 43.2 F 45.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 43.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	45.0%Over prob · Fangorn	62.1%no-vig	--	1.5065count	0.4319prob	0.8848proj	0.913context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
52	Ben RiceNYY	NYY vs CLEJoey Cantillo	P 41.4 F 50.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 49.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	50.5%Over prob · Fangorn	49.4%no-vig	--	1.3292count	0.4143prob	0.6183proj	1.084context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
53	Trent GrishamNYY	NYY vs CLEJoey Cantillo	P 42.2 F 55.4 EXPERIMENTAL V 54.4 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	55.4%Over prob · Fangorn	53.2%no-vig	--	1.4797count	0.4221prob	0.6973proj	1.084context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
54	Daniel SchneemannCLE	CLE vs NYYCam Schlittler	P 17.4 F 35.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 34.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	35.0%Over prob · Fangorn	53.8%no-vig	--	1.2815count	0.3625prob	0.7196proj	0.928context	FanDuel 500 avg 1 books