Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home runs · three lanes per row.

Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.

Rows
72
Matched
216
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-07-17 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-07-16
Palantir 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3783 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.006 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 5
17.0%Valinor 12.5%market +4.0pp
P 10.9
F 13.0
V 17.0
6.0pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
02 IL60
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 6
12.8%Valinor 9.5%market +3.0pp
P 10.3
F 12.9
V 12.8
2.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 920 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1
13.7%Valinor 10.5%market +2.8pp
P 14.9
F 12.4
V 13.7
2.5pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
13.0%Valinor 9.8%market +2.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.8
V 13.0
0.8pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1
13.4%Valinor 11.2%market +1.9pp
P 15.7
F 15.0
V 13.4
2.3pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 12.0%market +1.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.8
V 14.1
0.5pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
11.9%Valinor 10.0%market +1.6pp
P 17.3
F 15.0
V 11.9
5.4pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
16.6%Valinor 14.6%market +1.5pp
P 16.2
F 14.7
V 16.6
1.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
15.3%Valinor 13.5%market +1.3pp
P 15.0
F 13.8
V 15.3
1.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 12.5%market +1.2pp
P 15.7
F 13.6
V 14.2
2.1pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 3
16.7%Valinor 15.0%market +1.1pp
P 18.0
F 14.7
V 16.7
3.3pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
12
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
16.3%Valinor 14.8%market +0.9pp
P 19.2
F 15.0
V 16.3
4.3pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
13.9%Valinor 12.5%market +0.9pp
P 16.4
F 14.7
V 13.9
2.5pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6
12.1%Valinor 10.9%market +0.9pp
P 13.3
F 13.8
V 12.1
1.7pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
13.3%Valinor 12.5%market +0.3pp
P 18.5
F 15.0
V 13.3
5.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
16 IL60
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 6
11.8%Valinor 11.1%market +0.3pp
P 13.9
F 14.7
V 11.8
2.9pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 13.5%market +0.1pp
P 15.4
F 13.8
V 14.1
1.6pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
13.4%Valinor 13.1%market -0.2pp
P 17.0
F 15.0
V 13.4
3.5pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
13.6%Valinor 13.3%market -0.2pp
P 16.4
F 15.0
V 13.6
2.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
13.2%Valinor --market -0.5pp
P 15.9
F 15.0
V 13.2
2.8pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
9.1%Valinor 9.7%market -1.0pp
P 12.9
F 13.5
V 9.1
4.4pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
14.6%Valinor 15.1%market -1.0pp
P 17.0
F 15.0
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
14.9%Valinor 15.7%market -1.3pp
P 16.6
F 13.5
V 14.9
3.0pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 7
11.1%Valinor --market -1.4pp
P 16.2
F 15.0
V 11.1
5.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
25 IL10
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 6
10.4%Valinor --market -1.4pp
P 13.6
F 14.7
V 10.4
4.3pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
26
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4
14.1%Valinor 15.0%market -1.4pp
P 18.0
F 15.0
V 14.1
3.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
27 OUT
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
13.5%Valinor 14.4%market -1.4pp
P 15.0
F 13.8
V 13.5
1.5pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
28 IL10
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 6
12.1%Valinor 13.6%market -1.9pp
P 15.6
F 14.7
V 12.1
3.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
15.2%Valinor 16.7%market -2.1pp
P 21.3
F 18.1
V 15.2
6.1pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
12.5%Valinor 15.1%market -3.1pp
P 18.4
F 15.0
V 12.5
5.9pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
31
Josh Jung TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 7
9.1%Valinor 12.6%market -4.0pp
P 12.7
F 13.8
V 9.1
4.7pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 665 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
16.0%Valinor 25.8%market -10.7pp
P 14.8
F 12.9
V 16.0
3.1pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
15.3%Valinor 26.5%market -12.1pp
P 16.3
F 13.5
V 15.3
2.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
13.8%Valinor 7.7%market +5.8pp
P 9.5
F 13.0
V 13.8
4.3pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
12.8%Valinor 7.7%market +4.8pp
P 7.4
F 12.7
V 12.8
5.4pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36 OUT
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
11.6%Valinor 7.7%market +3.6pp
P 6.9
F 10.5
V 11.6
4.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
11.3%Valinor 7.7%market +3.3pp
P 8.2
F 12.4
V 11.3
4.2pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
9.7%Valinor 7.7%market +1.7pp
P 8.2
F 12.4
V 9.7
4.2pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 3
18.5%Valinor 16.7%market +1.1pp
P 19.1
F 18.1
V 18.5
1.1pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 1
18.4%Valinor 16.9%market +0.9pp
P 17.0
F 14.3
V 18.4
4.2pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
10.0%Valinor 8.7%market +0.9pp
P 8.9
F 10.5
V 10.0
1.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 13.1%market +0.5pp
P 15.8
F 14.7
V 14.1
1.7pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 4
18.2%Valinor 17.2%market +0.4pp
P 16.2
F 14.3
V 18.2
4.0pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
14.5%Valinor 13.8%market +0.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.8
V 14.5
0.7pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 14.2%market -0.5pp
P 18.9
F 15.0
V 14.2
4.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5
15.3%Valinor 15.5%market -0.7pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 15.3
1.3pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
9.6%Valinor 9.9%market -0.7pp
P 9.3
F 13.5
V 9.6
4.2pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 875 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
14.9%Valinor 15.2%market -0.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.8
V 14.9
1.8pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
49 IL10
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
14.6%Valinor 15.6%market -1.5pp
P 14.2
F 14.7
V 14.6
0.5pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
14.5%Valinor 15.6%market -1.7pp
P 13.5
F 14.7
V 14.5
1.2pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
15.2%Valinor 16.4%market -1.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.8
V 15.2
2.1pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4
16.3%Valinor 17.7%market -2.1pp
P 16.4
F 14.3
V 16.3
2.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
16.8%Valinor 18.2%market -2.1pp
P 20.6
F 18.1
V 16.8
3.8pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
14.8%Valinor 16.4%market -2.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 14.8
1.0pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
15.5%Valinor 17.1%market -2.2pp
P 15.5
F 13.8
V 15.5
1.7pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
13.0%Valinor 15.1%market -2.6pp
P 16.0
F 14.7
V 13.0
3.0pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
57 IL10
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
14.9%Valinor 17.5%market -3.3pp
P 14.9
F 13.8
V 14.9
1.1pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
13.9%Valinor 16.7%market -3.3pp
P 17.2
F 15.0
V 13.9
3.3pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
16.1%Valinor 18.8%market -3.4pp
P 16.4
F 14.3
V 16.1
2.2pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
15.1%Valinor 18.4%market -4.0pp
P 16.3
F 14.7
V 15.1
1.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
14.0%Valinor 17.4%market -4.0pp
P 17.3
F 15.0
V 14.0
3.4pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 2
17.0%Valinor 20.3%market -4.1pp
P 16.0
F 14.7
V 17.0
2.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2
15.1%Valinor 19.5%market -5.1pp
P 17.7
F 15.0
V 15.1
2.7pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 395 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
15.9%Valinor 20.3%market -5.1pp
P 16.0
F 13.8
V 15.9
2.2pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
15.2%Valinor 20.3%market -5.9pp
P 15.4
F 13.8
V 15.2
1.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
66 IL10
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
15.7%Valinor 21.0%market -6.0pp
P 16.3
F 13.8
V 15.7
2.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 360 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
15.1%Valinor 20.5%market -6.2pp
P 17.3
F 15.0
V 15.1
2.4pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
15.8%Valinor 21.2%market -6.2pp
P 17.6
F 14.7
V 15.8
2.9pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
14.4%Valinor 20.5%market -6.8pp
P 14.7
F 13.8
V 14.4
0.9pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
13.8%Valinor 19.9%market -6.9pp
P 17.7
F 14.7
V 13.8
3.9pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4
13.1%Valinor 19.7%market -7.3pp
P 11.9
F 13.6
V 13.1
1.7pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
72 IL10
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
13.2%Valinor 21.2%market -8.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 13.2
0.8pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status1688roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.