Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

ATL at MIA

Brent Suter vs Jack Ralston · 4:10 PM ET

Warmup 0 - 0

The question

Does Mithrandir lean ATL or MIA?

Mithrandir currently leans MIA over ATL.

Live win probability from the latest pitch-aware Mirror simulation.

52.6% Mirror live re-sim

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs ATL 4.6 · MIA 4.1 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.7 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.2 runs

Run line ATL -1.5 · MIA 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.5% · YRFI 49.5% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 0 No real output for this game

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

0 matched rows

No matched player rows

Player boards may still be publishing, or this game has no eligible current rows.

Kalshi exchange context

Atlanta win contract 52.5% Bid 52c · ask 53c · Mithrandir 47.4%

Miami win contract 48.0% Bid 47c · ask 49c · Mithrandir 52.6%

First inning run: Yes 47.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.