Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.214 vs 0.178 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Carter, Evan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
30
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.292
0.304
0.317
0.329
wOBA
0.266
0.282
0.301
0.320
0.336
ISO
0.124
0.141
0.160
0.179
0.196
K%
20.3%
21.8%
23.4%
25.1%
26.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
34
Exit velocity84.8
16
Hard-hit%37.5%
44
xBA0.283
16
xSLG0.471
35
xwOBA0.294
37
-25 vs proj
BB%12.9%
89
+30 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
31
K%25.2%
35
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
19
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
30
Outs Above Avg7.0 · CF
98
Range Runs6.1 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · CF
91
Bolts24.0 · CF
84
SB Success Rate90.9% · CF
81
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
89
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.4% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
66
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
132 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.017 |
| Sample | 278 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 336 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.318 | 0.278 to 0.344 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.166 | 0.110 to 0.259 | +/- 0.075 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 2.3% to 7.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 31.0% to 47.6% | +/- 8.3% |
| K% | 21.4% | 18.8% to 30.1% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 6.0% to 12.4% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.230 to 0.332 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
90 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.178 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
480 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.214 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |