Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Norby, Connor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.295 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.284
0.301
0.318
0.334
wOBA
0.286
0.306
0.328
0.350
0.370
ISO
0.107
0.128
0.151
0.175
0.195
K%
23.6%
25.1%
26.9%
28.6%
30.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.1%
66
+45 vs proj
Barrel%6.2%
66
Bat speed68.5
35
Exit velocity87.4
36
Hard-hit%36.4%
35
K%28.4%
20
xBA0.290
22
xSLG0.523
54
xwOBA0.295
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.6 · 1B
25
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs2.0 · 1B
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 1B
56
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
35
Sprint Speed28.1 · 1B
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.1% · rebadged research
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions71.0% · rebadged research
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
14
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256 · validated thin sample
93
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
49
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
119 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| Sample | 208 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 398 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.257 to 0.360 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.150 | 0.087 to 0.249 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 3.3% to 8.5% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 30.6% to 45.2% | +/- 7.3% |
| K% | 26.7% | 21.3% to 31.7% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 4.5% to 9.5% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.302 | 0.222 to 0.367 | +/- 0.073 |
vs LHP
170 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
399 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |