Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Caballero, José
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYY
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.284 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.282 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.254
0.267
0.282
0.297
0.310
wOBA
0.298
0.318
0.342
0.365
0.386
ISO
0.093
0.108
0.125
0.142
0.157
K%
21.3%
22.9%
24.6%
26.4%
28.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.8%
19
-25 vs proj
Barrel%3.2%
25
Bat speed64.9
6
Exit velocity80.9
3
Hard-hit%29.5%
12
K%18.9%
68
+43 vs proj
xBA0.297
29
xSLG0.426
23
xwOBA0.284
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
12
Arm Strength83.2 · SS
30
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
45
Range Runs0.4 · SS
52
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · SS
26
SB Success Rate61.5% · SS
16
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
78
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6% · rebadged research
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions63.1% · rebadged research
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
47
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
135 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.055 |
| Sample | 190 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 449 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.286 | 0.251 to 0.326 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.109 | 0.085 to 0.194 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.9% to 5.2% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 29.4% | 22.7% to 36.8% | +/- 7.1% |
| K% | 27.2% | 22.3% to 33.0% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 5.7% to 11.7% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.296 | 0.255 to 0.357 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
397 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 23.2% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
816 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.227 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |