Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

Caballero, José

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.286 xwOBA
Range
0.251 to 0.326
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
17
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
20
Defense4 metrics
33
Speed3 metrics
43
Plate skills10 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.280
xwOBA current pace0.270
xwOBA rolling p500.274
Observed weight59%
xwOBA
0.250 0.261 0.274 0.287 0.299
wOBA
0.292 0.308 0.326 0.344 0.360
ISO
0.111 0.123 0.137 0.152 0.164
K%
23.0% 24.3% 25.8% 27.3% 28.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
23
Exit velocity81.0
3
Hard-hit%26.3%
9
xBA0.302
28
xSLG0.441
26
xwOBA0.270
16
BB%5.7%
19 -30 vs proj
Bat speed65.4
8
K%23.2%
44 +20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · SS
1
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
78
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
28
Range Runs-2.3 · SS
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · SS
35
SB Success Rate69.6% · SS
26
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
68
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.4% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions61.3% · rebadged research
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
91
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
53
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Caballero, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.270 2026-07-06: 0.2762026-07-07: 0.2732026-07-08: 0.2792026-07-09: 0.2752026-07-10: 0.2732026-07-11: 0.2722026-07-12: 0.2732026-07-13: 0.2722026-07-14: 0.2702026-07-15: 0.2702026-07-16: 0.2702026-07-17: 0.270 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

José Caballero's tools (77) outpace production (79) by -2 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

155 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Caballero, José · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 82% of plotted batted ballsCenter 82%Right field third: 6% of plotted batted ballsOppo 6% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 26.7 / LA 6.02026-03-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -2.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 36.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 33.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -10.02026-03-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.9 / LA -62.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -4.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 40.02026-03-22 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 45.02026-03-23 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 89.4 / LA 11.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -23.02026-03-25 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -9.02026-03-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA 12.02026-03-25 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 10.02026-03-25 · field out · SI · popup · EV 58.2 / LA 43.02026-03-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 66.3 / LA 22.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 54.02026-03-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.4 / LA 8.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 2.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 68.9 / LA 42.02026-03-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -74.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -28.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 49.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 28.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA -45.02026-04-01 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA -15.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 27.5 / LA -67.02026-04-03 · field error · FS · ground_ball · EV 67.3 / LA -30.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 32.1 / LA -52.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 52.1 / LA -70.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · popup · EV 88.6 / LA 80.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 55.02026-04-07 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 19.02026-04-07 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.8 / LA -17.02026-04-07 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 6.02026-04-09 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 60.9 / LA -2.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 28.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 76.2 / LA 32.02026-04-11 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 12.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 32.02026-04-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 1.02026-04-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 29.02026-04-12 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -16.02026-04-13 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 25.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.1 / LA 24.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 6.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.5 / LA -1.02026-04-13 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 2.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 56.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 7.02026-04-15 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 10.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA 8.02026-04-15 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 15.02026-04-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 15.02026-04-16 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.3 / LA 9.02026-04-16 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 0.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 15.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.1 / LA 83.02026-04-18 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.3 / LA -19.02026-04-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 16.02026-04-18 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -7.02026-04-19 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 47.2 / LA -39.02026-04-19 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 14.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.0 / LA -4.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 100.5 / LA 77.02026-04-21 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -3.02026-04-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 0.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA -18.02026-04-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 2.02026-04-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA -13.02026-04-23 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 67.5 / LA 27.02026-04-23 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 86.4 / LA 2.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · popup · EV 93.2 / LA 75.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -12.02026-04-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.2 / LA 19.02026-04-24 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 41.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 40.3 / LA -32.02026-04-25 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 23.02026-04-25 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 39.2 / LA -43.02026-04-25 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -21.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -9.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 56.8 / LA 59.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 72.1 / LA 10.02026-04-27 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA -6.02026-04-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 61.7 / LA -12.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · popup · EV 65.9 / LA 66.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -33.02026-04-28 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -18.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA -18.02026-04-29 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 46.4 / LA -51.02026-04-29 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 47.02026-05-01 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 7.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 25.02026-05-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 34.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 6.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -1.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -8.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -24.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA 0.02026-05-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.7 / LA -58.02026-05-04 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 22.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 52.02026-05-04 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -5.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 21.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 40.1 / LA -48.02026-05-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 34.3 / LA -24.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 23.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 61.3 / LA -26.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 1.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 60.5 / LA 78.02026-05-08 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 1.02026-05-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 12.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 54.4 / LA 19.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 34.8 / LA -16.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 32.5 / LA 63.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -4.02026-05-10 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 22.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 3.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 49.2 / LA -1.02026-05-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 8.02026-05-22 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 3.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 71.5 / LA 11.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.5 / LA -4.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 52.6 / LA -28.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · popup · EV 77.4 / LA 68.02026-05-25 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -24.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 16.02026-05-25 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 18.02026-05-26 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA 6.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA -6.02026-05-27 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 19.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 17.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · popup · EV 82.6 / LA 73.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 30.02026-05-31 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 27.02026-06-04 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 20.02026-06-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.8 / LA -14.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 25.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 61.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · popup · EV 61.3 / LA 41.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · LA -87.02026-06-07 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 78.8 / LA 21.02026-06-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 20.02026-06-20 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 4.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · popup · EV 83.9 / LA 61.02026-06-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA -18.02026-06-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 4.02026-06-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA -11.02026-06-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 26.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 33.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · popup · EV 63.4 / LA 63.02026-06-30 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA 1.02026-07-01 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -2.02026-07-01 · sac bunt · SL · ground_ball · EV 52.9 / LA -88.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 20.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Caballero, José · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 68.6 mph Hard swing rate 4% Whiff / swing 31% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Caballero, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 36%36%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 26%26% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.016
wOBA Δ+0.039
Sample315 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances449----
Home Runs9----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2860.251 to 0.326+/- 0.038
ISO0.1090.085 to 0.194+/- 0.054
Barrel%2.9%1.9% to 5.2%+/- 1.6%
Hard-Hit%29.4%22.7% to 36.8%+/- 7.1%
K%27.2%22.3% to 33.0%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.5%5.7% to 11.7%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.2960.255 to 0.357+/- 0.051
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

397 career PA

xwOBA0.239
K%23.2%
BB%8.0%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHP

816 career PA

xwOBA0.227
K%21.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel2.3%