Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Pages, Andy
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
70
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.335 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.340 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.316
0.328
0.340
0.353
0.364
wOBA
0.337
0.352
0.367
0.383
0.397
ISO
0.163
0.175
0.189
0.203
0.215
K%
17.1%
18.2%
19.4%
20.7%
21.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
62
Exit velocity88.8
58
Hard-hit%44.5%
74
+27 vs proj
xBA0.345
74
xSLG0.576
71
xwOBA0.343
80
BB%8.3%
47
+27 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
68
K%19.0%
70
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.2 · CF
99
Arm Strength98.8 · CF
91
Outs Above Avg5.0 · CF
96
Range Runs4.9 · CF
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · CF
36
SB Success Rate61.5% · CF
15
Sprint Speed28.2 · CF
73
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9% · rebadged research
54
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
76
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
70
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
218 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.045 |
| Sample | 432 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 591 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.300 to 0.381 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.159 | 0.112 to 0.234 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.6% to 8.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.3% | 35.0% to 46.3% | +/- 5.6% |
| K% | 19.8% | 16.3% to 26.6% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 4.0% to 8.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.252 to 0.332 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
287 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.269 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |
vs RHP
880 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 18.4% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |