Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Pages, Andy
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.335 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.360 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.349 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.321
0.334
0.349
0.363
0.376
wOBA
0.368
0.386
0.406
0.427
0.445
ISO
0.174
0.189
0.207
0.224
0.240
K%
16.1%
17.5%
19.0%
20.5%
21.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.8%
27
Barrel%7.2%
77
+16 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
Exit velocity89.8
66
Hard-hit%47.7%
83
+41 vs proj
K%17.9%
76
xBA0.360
81
xSLG0.621
79
xwOBA0.360
83
+23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.4 · CF
98
Arm Strength97.5 · CF
88
Outs Above Avg5.0 · CF
97
Range Runs4.7 · CF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
63
SB Success Rate87.5% · CF
74
Sprint Speed28.1 · CF
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
43
Correct Decisions64.5% · rebadged research
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
39
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.376 · insufficient sample
1
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
39
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
43
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
186 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.084 |
| Sample | 263 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 591 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.300 to 0.381 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.159 | 0.112 to 0.234 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.6% to 8.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.3% | 35.0% to 46.3% | +/- 5.6% |
| K% | 19.8% | 16.3% to 26.6% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 4.0% to 8.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.252 to 0.332 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
287 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.269 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |
vs RHP
880 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 18.4% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |