Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Sanoja, Javier
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.267 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.255
0.271
0.289
0.307
0.324
wOBA
0.284
0.308
0.335
0.362
0.386
ISO
0.092
0.116
0.142
0.169
0.193
K%
9.8%
11.2%
12.8%
14.3%
15.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
31
Barrel%1.4%
8
Bat speed68.2
31
Exit velocity87.2
35
Hard-hit%32.2%
20
-18 vs proj
K%10.0%
98
xBA0.261
8
xSLG0.339
4
xwOBA0.267
15
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 3B
21
Arm Strength85.2 · 3B
44
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs-1.3 · 3B
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 3B
20
Bolts7.0 · 3B
67
Sprint Speed28.6 · 3B
86
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.4% · rebadged research
18
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions60.3% · rebadged research
10
Mithrandir Stuff+47
1
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · borderline
6
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
57
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
13
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
32
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
72
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
14
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
111 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.056 |
| Sample | 140 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 384 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.279 | 0.250 to 0.345 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.148 | 0.082 to 0.241 | +/- 0.080 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 0.2% to 4.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.0% | 28.1% to 43.4% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 12.5% | 10.8% to 19.6% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 3.6% to 9.6% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.265 to 0.323 | +/- 0.029 |
vs LHP
162 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.179 |
| K% | 7.0% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |
vs RHP
243 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.176 |
| K% | 7.4% |
| BB% | 3.7% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |