Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

TB at PHI

Griffin Jax vs home starter pending · 7:15 PM ET

Scheduled 7:15 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean TB or PHI?

The run projection leans PHI over TB.

Projected runs: TB 4.3, PHI 4.6. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs TB 4.3 · PHI 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.9 · Market 6.5 model minus market +2.4 runs

Run line TB 1.5 · PHI -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.7% · YRFI 50.3% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 0 No real output for this game

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

0 matched rows

No matched player rows

Player boards may still be publishing, or this game has no eligible current rows.

Kalshi exchange context

Philadelphia win contract 50.5% Bid 50c · ask 51c

Tampa Bay win contract 49.5% Bid 49c · ask 50c

First inning run: Yes 44.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.