Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

NYM at WSH

Jonah Tong vs Connelly Early · 12:35 PM ET

Scheduled 12:35 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean NYM or WSH?

The run projection leans NYM over WSH.

Projected runs: NYM 4.7, WSH 4.2. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs NYM 4.7 · WSH 4.2 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.8 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.3 runs

Run line NYM -1.5 · WSH 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.6% · YRFI 50.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 0 No real output for this game

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

0 matched rows

No matched player rows

Player boards may still be publishing, or this game has no eligible current rows.

Kalshi exchange context

New York M win contract 51.5% Bid 51c · ask 52c

Washington win contract 48.5% Bid 48c · ask 49c

First inning run: Yes 50.0% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.