Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-06-13

Aaron Nola

PHI · SP · throws R · age 33
Projected starter Opp K 22.1% Neutral
MatchupPHI vs MILopponent
Sample1781.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 15 rows
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 55.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.6% Market -- Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -166 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 66.6
F 67.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 66.6% Market 58.0% Gap +12.7pp
FanDuel -138 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
16
ERA5.86
12
BB%8.1%
59 -19 vs proj
K%23.4%
55 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.326
39
Barrel allowed9.0%
33
Fastball velo91.8
14
Hard-hit allowed40.5%
42
Whiff%24.2%
60 +27 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+101
46
Sinker Stuff+103
55
Changeup Stuff+103
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+95
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range18.4% to 27.7%
Opponent K22.1%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)