Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Fermin, José

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
18.7% to 34.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p503.75
Observed weight50%
ERA
2.12 2.89 3.75 4.61 5.38
FIP
2.63 3.31 4.06 4.82 5.50
K%
22.3% 24.3% 26.5% 28.8% 30.8%
BB%
8.2% 9.6% 11.3% 12.9% 14.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
40
ERA3.86
57
BB%10.5%
31
K%26.1%
77
xwOBA allowed0.328
32 -22 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
49 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo96.4
80
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
19
Whiff%27.3%
84
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+104
66
Changeup Stuff+91
6
Fastball Stuff+96
17
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fermin, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.328 2026-09-13: 0.3182026-09-14: 0.3182026-09-18: 0.3182026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3182026-09-22: 0.3182026-09-23: 0.3252026-09-24: 0.3312026-09-25: 0.3312026-09-26: 0.3282026-09-27: 0.328 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fermin, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fermin, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 58.4%Sinker: 29.9%4-Seam Fastball: 7.0%Changeup: 4.7% SL58% · 90 mphprimary pitch SL 58%SI 30%FF 7%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fermin, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 58% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.5 mphSL90 mphSinker: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.4 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.6 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.0 mphCH93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 59.5% 364 104 qualified
SI 26.8% 164 106 limited sample
FB 8.5% 52 96 limited sample
CH 5.2% 32 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 49%, 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Sinker 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.01
K% Δ+0.007
Sample53.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.9----
Batters Faced152----
K%25.4%18.7% to 34.0%+/- 7.6%
BB%11.6%6.1% to 17.2%+/- 5.6%
Whiff%26.9%22.0% to 35.8%+/- 6.9%
HR/91.250.53 to 2.44+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.3090.226 to 0.368+/- 0.071
Barrel% Allowed9.5%4.2% to 16.2%+/- 6.0%
ERA3.851.97 to 6.59+/- 2.31
FIP3.872.30 to 6.37+/- 2.03
WHIP1.3170.996 to 1.718+/- 0.361
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

72 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%22.1%
BB%13.9%
Barrel13.2%
vs RHH

83 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%23.3%
BB%10.1%
Barrel10.2%