Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Farris, Mitch

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
16.7% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason5.04
ERA current pace3.66
ERA rolling p504.62
Observed weight31%
ERA
3.20 3.87 4.62 5.36 6.04
FIP
3.67 4.17 4.71 5.26 5.75
K%
17.7% 19.7% 21.9% 24.2% 26.2%
BB%
6.8% 7.8% 9.0% 10.2% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.4%
30
Barrel allowed6.9%
63 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
13
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
60
K%21.7%
46
Whiff%22.0%
43 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.336
32
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+93
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

6 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Farris, Mitch · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-28: 0.3482026-05-29: 0.3532026-05-30: 0.3532026-05-31: 0.3532026-06-01: 0.3362026-06-02: 0.336 2026-05-28 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Farris, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Farris, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.2%Changeup: 28.1%Cutter: 15.4%Slider: 12.3% MIX FF 44%CH 28%FC 15%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Farris, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB 0.1, IVB 1.3FFCH: HB -0.3, IVB 3.7CHFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1FCSL: HB -0.1, IVB 3.9SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.3% 176 96 limited sample
CH 28.5% 113 92 limited sample
FC 15.1% 60 99 limited sample
SL 12.1% 48 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Changeup 27%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.02
K% Δ+0.013
Sample24.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.5----
Batters Faced284----
K%20.4%16.7% to 28.1%+/- 5.7%
BB%9.2%6.4% to 12.0%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%24.3%19.2% to 29.6%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.460.93 to 2.08+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3390.280 to 0.350+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.1% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.683.52 to 7.26+/- 1.87
FIP4.462.84 to 5.58+/- 1.37
WHIP1.3611.006 to 1.646+/- 0.320
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

34 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%20.2%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

73 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%17.9%
BB%8.3%
Barrel9.2%