Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Farris, Mitch

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
16.7% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal5 metrics
15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason5.04
ERA current pace3.96
ERA rolling p504.49
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.16 3.79 4.49 5.18 5.81
FIP
3.54 3.99 4.50 5.01 5.47
K%
19.8% 21.4% 23.1% 24.9% 26.5%
BB%
7.9% 8.8% 9.8% 10.8% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
26
ERA3.96
53
BB%11.1%
25 -22 vs proj
K%24.2%
67 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.335
27
Barrel allowed8.9%
27
Fastball velo91.7
13
Hard-hit allowed44.9%
9
Whiff%24.6%
65
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+95
11
Mithrandir Stuff+94
10
Changeup Stuff+91
6
Cutter Stuff+100
40
Slider Stuff+93
7
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Farris, Mitch · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-09-12: 0.3532026-09-13: 0.3532026-09-14: 0.3532026-09-18: 0.3472026-09-19: 0.3472026-09-20: 0.3472026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.335 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Farris, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Farris, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.6%Changeup: 25.5%Cutter: 15.5%Slider: 13.3% FF46% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 46%CH 26%FC 16%SL 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Farris, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.7 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 78.8 mphCH79 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mphSlider: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.7 mphSL82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.5% 253 95 qualified
CH 26.6% 155 91 limited sample
FC 15.3% 89 100 limited sample
SL 14.6% 85 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Changeup 27%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.72
K% Δ+0.038
Sample57.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.3----
Batters Faced288----
K%20.4%16.7% to 28.1%+/- 5.7%
BB%9.2%6.4% to 12.0%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%24.3%19.2% to 29.6%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.460.93 to 2.08+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3390.280 to 0.350+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.1% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.683.52 to 7.26+/- 1.87
FIP4.482.84 to 5.58+/- 1.37
WHIP1.3621.006 to 1.646+/- 0.320
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

34 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%20.2%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

73 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%17.9%
BB%8.3%
Barrel9.2%