Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Early, Connelly

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.2% K%
Range
22.8% to 37.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal6 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
ERA preseason3.53
ERA current pace3.26
ERA rolling p503.37
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.09 2.70 3.37 4.05 4.66
FIP
2.76 3.23 3.75 4.28 4.75
K%
22.3% 23.9% 25.8% 27.6% 29.3%
BB%
6.3% 7.2% 8.2% 9.1% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
69
ERA3.26
63
BB%9.1%
44 -23 vs proj
K%23.8%
59 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.333
32 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
12 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
31
Hard-hit allowed43.9%
23
Whiff%21.4%
36 -45 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-12
Changeup Stuff+104
62
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Curveball Stuff+100
24
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+100
37
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Early, Connelly · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.333 2026-06-01: 0.3382026-06-02: 0.3382026-06-03: 0.3382026-06-04: 0.3372026-06-05: 0.3372026-06-06: 0.3372026-06-07: 0.3372026-06-08: 0.3372026-06-09: 0.3372026-06-10: 0.3332026-06-11: 0.3332026-06-12: 0.333 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Early, Connelly · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Early, Connelly · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.1%Sinker: 19.9%Changeup: 19.8%Curveball: 11.5%Slider: 8.0%Sweeper: 5.7% FF35% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SI 20%CH 20%CU 11%SL 8%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Early, Connelly · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSinker: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.6 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 80.1 mphCU80 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.0 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.6% 342 102 qualified
CH 21.3% 210 104 qualified
SI 18.8% 186 100 limited sample
CB 12.7% 125 100 limited sample
SL 12.7% 125 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Changeup 18%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.39
K% Δ-0.034
Sample76.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.0----
Batters Faced277----
K%27.2%22.8% to 37.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%7.6%3.2% to 9.8%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%27.6%21.8% to 32.9%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.100.05 to 1.43+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3090.204 to 0.331+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed9.1%3.4% to 10.6%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.651.64 to 5.24+/- 1.80
FIP2.880.80 to 3.58+/- 1.39
WHIP1.2490.939 to 1.568+/- 0.314
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

33 career BF

xwOBA0.174
K%29.9%
BB%3.8%
Barrel4.6%
vs RHH

65 career BF

xwOBA0.193
K%25.0%
BB%4.1%
Barrel5.5%