Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Matthews, Zebby

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.3% K%
Range
18.1% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal7 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace4.74
ERA rolling p504.64
Observed weight70%
ERA
3.35 3.96 4.64 5.32 5.93
FIP
3.40 3.92 4.50 5.08 5.60
K%
19.0% 20.1% 21.3% 22.5% 23.6%
BB%
5.6% 6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 7.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
63
ERA4.74
32
BB%6.9%
79
K%20.7%
40 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
40 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.6%
9 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
62
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
24
Whiff%20.2%
29 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+104
73
Slider Stuff+103
60
Changeup Stuff+107
84
Curveball Stuff+100
24
Cutter Stuff+107
95
Sinker Stuff+104
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matthews, Zebby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.321 2026-09-12: 0.3302026-09-13: 0.3302026-09-14: 0.3302026-09-18: 0.3242026-09-19: 0.3242026-09-20: 0.3242026-09-21: 0.3242026-09-22: 0.3212026-09-23: 0.3212026-09-24: 0.3212026-09-25: 0.3212026-09-26: 0.321 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matthews, Zebby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matthews, Zebby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.7%Slider: 22.9%Changeup: 12.8%Cutter: 12.5%Curveball: 10.9%Sinker: 4.8% FF36% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SL 23%CH 13%FC 13%CU 11%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matthews, Zebby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.8 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.8 mphCU80 mphSinker: 5% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.5 mphFS83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.0% 437 105 qualified
SL 22.3% 271 103 qualified
CH 13.4% 162 107 limited sample
FC 12.4% 151 107 limited sample
CB 11.6% 141 100 limited sample
SI 4.2% 51 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.311 vs 0.276 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Slider 25%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.32
K% Δ-0.027
Sample134.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings136.5----
Batters Faced615----
K%23.3%18.1% to 29.7%+/- 5.8%
BB%6.9%4.5% to 8.6%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%24.4%20.0% to 28.9%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.320.82 to 2.37+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3050.271 to 0.355+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.5% to 13.0%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.423.38 to 6.75+/- 1.69
FIP3.782.66 to 5.55+/- 1.44
WHIP1.2811.099 to 1.648+/- 0.275
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

278 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%20.5%
BB%6.5%
Barrel11.0%
vs RHH

253 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%21.0%
BB%4.9%
Barrel8.8%