Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Matthews, Zebby

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.3% K%
Range
18.1% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal7 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace4.57
ERA rolling p504.50
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.30 3.87 4.50 5.13 5.70
FIP
3.58 4.07 4.61 5.14 5.63
K%
17.4% 18.9% 20.5% 22.1% 23.5%
BB%
4.8% 5.5% 6.2% 6.9% 7.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
68
ERA4.57
34
BB%6.1%
86
K%18.6%
24 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
32 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.3%
6 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
59
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
54
Whiff%20.2%
26 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Changeup Stuff+108
87
Curveball Stuff+100
25
Cutter Stuff+104
68
Sinker Stuff+103
63
Slider Stuff+102
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matthews, Zebby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-07-05: 0.3202026-07-06: 0.3272026-07-07: 0.3272026-07-08: 0.3272026-07-09: 0.3272026-07-10: 0.3272026-07-11: 0.3262026-07-12: 0.3302026-07-13: 0.3302026-07-14: 0.3302026-07-15: 0.3302026-07-16: 0.330 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matthews, Zebby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matthews, Zebby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.5%Slider: 21.9%Cutter: 12.7%Curveball: 12.2%Changeup: 11.7%Sinker: 4.6% FF37% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SL 22%FC 13%CU 12%CH 12%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matthews, Zebby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSlider: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.4 mphCU79 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mphSinker: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mphSplit-Finger: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.5 mphFS83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.2% 221 104 qualified
SL 20.0% 116 102 limited sample
CB 14.7% 85 100 limited sample
CH 12.8% 74 108 limited sample
FC 11.4% 66 104 limited sample
SI 2.9% 17 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.311 vs 0.276 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Slider 25%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.15
K% Δ-0.047
Sample71.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.4----
Batters Faced624----
K%23.3%18.1% to 29.7%+/- 5.8%
BB%6.9%4.5% to 8.6%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%24.4%20.0% to 28.9%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.320.82 to 2.37+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3060.271 to 0.355+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.5% to 13.0%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.423.38 to 6.75+/- 1.69
FIP3.782.66 to 5.55+/- 1.44
WHIP1.2811.099 to 1.648+/- 0.275
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

278 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%20.5%
BB%6.5%
Barrel11.0%
vs RHH

253 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%21.0%
BB%4.9%
Barrel8.8%