Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Sommers, Drew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
3.6% to 28.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
80
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace3.63
ERA rolling p503.81
Observed weight41%
ERA
2.13 2.93 3.81 4.70 5.49
FIP
2.40 2.95 3.56 4.18 4.73
K%
18.4% 22.0% 25.9% 29.8% 33.3%
BB%
5.0% 6.6% 8.4% 10.1% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
63
ERA3.63
65
BB%8.2%
58
K%36.5%
99 +53 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.229
99 +47 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.3%
97 +42 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
58
Hard-hit allowed30.0%
96
Whiff%27.7%
85 +22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+97
19
Fastball Stuff+109
92
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Sinker Stuff+103
55
Slider Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sommers, Drew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.229 2026-09-13: 0.2342026-09-14: 0.2342026-09-18: 0.2352026-09-19: 0.2272026-09-20: 0.2272026-09-21: 0.2272026-09-22: 0.2292026-09-23: 0.2292026-09-24: 0.2292026-09-25: 0.2292026-09-26: 0.2292026-09-27: 0.229 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sommers, Drew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sommers, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 41.9%4-Seam Fastball: 34.1%Slider: 20.2%Changeup: 3.7% SI42% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 42%FF 34%SL 20%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sommers, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 42% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphSlider: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 83.4 mphSL83 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 40.2% 127 103 limited sample
FB 36.1% 114 109 limited sample
SL 19.0% 60 98 limited sample
CH 4.7% 15 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 44%, Slider 42%, 4-Seam Fastball 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.45
K% Δ+0.147
Sample39.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.5----
Batters Faced152----
K%21.7%3.6% to 28.2%+/- 12.3%
BB%8.4%1.9% to 12.7%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%24.4%6.5% to 30.7%+/- 12.1%
HR/91.380.00 to 1.91+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3110.089 to 0.362+/- 0.137
Barrel% Allowed7.2%0.6% to 10.0%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.081.97 to 6.66+/- 2.34
FIP4.062.09 to 5.34+/- 1.62
WHIP1.3520.839 to 1.714+/- 0.437
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

10 career BF

xwOBA0.090
K%4.7%
BB%3.4%
Barrel1.9%
vs RHH

9 career BF

xwOBA0.099
K%4.3%
BB%3.9%
Barrel2.5%