Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Blubaugh, Aj

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
21.9% to 32.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.50
ERA current pace3.42
ERA rolling p503.45
Observed weight64%
ERA
1.92 2.64 3.45 4.25 4.98
FIP
3.49 3.89 4.33 4.78 5.18
K%
22.0% 23.3% 24.6% 26.0% 27.3%
BB%
8.1% 8.9% 9.8% 10.7% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.20
72
ERA3.42
72
BB%10.5%
30
K%23.7%
63
xwOBA allowed0.317
46 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.0%
15
Fastball velo95.8
72
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
64
Whiff%25.3%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+98
25
Fastball Stuff+103
58
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Slider Stuff+105
76
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Cutter Stuff+94
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Blubaugh, Aj · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.317 2026-09-12: 0.3122026-09-13: 0.3132026-09-14: 0.3132026-09-18: 0.3112026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3182026-09-22: 0.3182026-09-23: 0.3192026-09-24: 0.3162026-09-25: 0.3162026-09-26: 0.317 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Blubaugh, Aj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blubaugh, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.1%Sweeper: 22.5%Changeup: 20.6%Cutter: 4.9%Curveball: 1.0% FF51% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 51%ST 22%CH 21%FC 5%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blubaugh, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.7 mphST85 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphCutter: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.7% 550 103 qualified
CH 23.1% 261 98 qualified
SL 22.0% 249 105 qualified
FC 5.0% 57 94 limited sample
CB 1.2% 13 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 55%, Sweeper 21%, Changeup 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.83
K% Δ-0.014
Sample100.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.2----
Batters Faced261----
K%25.1%21.9% to 32.8%+/- 5.5%
BB%9.9%5.9% to 12.5%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%26.5%21.5% to 31.2%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.431.04 to 2.16+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2960.239 to 0.320+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.1% to 12.8%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.251.13 to 5.31+/- 2.09
FIP4.343.00 to 5.31+/- 1.16
WHIP1.1580.706 to 1.438+/- 0.366
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

59 career BF

xwOBA0.226
K%24.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

66 career BF

xwOBA0.215
K%23.8%
BB%6.9%
Barrel8.1%