Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Dollander, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
16.0% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.47
ERA current pace3.89
ERA rolling p504.19
Observed weight48%
ERA
3.00 3.56 4.19 4.82 5.38
FIP
3.24 3.60 4.00 4.39 4.75
K%
19.1% 21.0% 23.2% 25.3% 27.2%
BB%
7.2% 8.1% 9.0% 9.9% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
37
ERA3.89
55
BB%9.4%
45
K%24.6%
68 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
58 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
10 -23 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
97
Hard-hit allowed50.3%
1
Whiff%24.9%
67
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Changeup Stuff+104
70
Curveball Stuff+100
17
Sinker Stuff+106
79
Slider Stuff+104
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Dollander, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.307 2026-09-12: 0.3072026-09-13: 0.3072026-09-14: 0.3072026-09-18: 0.3072026-09-19: 0.3072026-09-20: 0.3072026-09-21: 0.3072026-09-22: 0.3072026-09-23: 0.3072026-09-24: 0.3072026-09-25: 0.3072026-09-26: 0.307 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Dollander, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dollander, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.6%Sinker: 25.5%Slider: 14.2%Changeup: 10.9%Curveball: 8.8%Sweeper: 5.0% FF36% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SI 26%SL 14%CH 11%CU 9%ST 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dollander, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 98.8 mphFF99 mphSinker: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 98.2 mphSI98 mphSlider: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.6 mphCH91 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.7 mphST86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.7% 280 106 qualified
SI 24.0% 178 106 limited sample
SL 19.9% 148 104 limited sample
CH 10.5% 78 104 limited sample
CB 7.9% 59 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.296 vs 0.264 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Curveball 21%, Slider 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.65
K% Δ+0.028
Sample50.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.8----
Batters Faced645----
K%21.8%16.0% to 30.1%+/- 7.0%
BB%8.7%6.4% to 11.5%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%22.9%19.5% to 28.6%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.270.82 to 2.37+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3280.269 to 0.359+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.3% to 12.7%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.543.39 to 6.76+/- 1.69
FIP4.333.16 to 5.29+/- 1.07
WHIP1.3511.099 to 1.698+/- 0.299
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

255 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%17.0%
BB%9.5%
Barrel10.3%
vs RHH

221 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%20.4%
BB%7.3%
Barrel8.4%