Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Messick, Parker

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
18.6% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal7 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace2.73
ERA rolling p503.12
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.08 2.57 3.12 3.66 4.15
FIP
2.93 3.31 3.73 4.15 4.53
K%
21.6% 22.8% 24.1% 25.3% 26.5%
BB%
5.4% 6.1% 6.8% 7.6% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
81
ERA2.73
82
BB%7.5%
67 -25 vs proj
K%24.4%
62 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.281
81 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.6%
68
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed35.4%
74
Whiff%23.0%
50
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+103
68
Cutter Stuff+95
6
Sinker Stuff+103
53
Slider Stuff+100
34
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Messick, Parker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.281 2026-07-07: 0.2802026-07-08: 0.2802026-07-09: 0.2802026-07-10: 0.2802026-07-11: 0.2802026-07-12: 0.2812026-07-13: 0.2812026-07-14: 0.2812026-07-15: 0.2812026-07-16: 0.2812026-07-17: 0.2812026-07-18: 0.281 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Messick, Parker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Messick, Parker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.4%Changeup: 23.3%Sinker: 17.0%Curveball: 11.4%Cutter: 7.3%Slider: 6.6% FF34% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 34%CH 23%SI 17%CU 11%FC 7%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Messick, Parker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mphSinker: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 78.8 mphCU79 mphCutter: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mphSlider: 7% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.9% 362 104 qualified
CH 23.8% 279 100 qualified
SI 16.8% 197 103 limited sample
CB 11.5% 135 103 limited sample
SL 8.5% 100 100 limited sample
FC 8.5% 100 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.214 vs 0.236 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Changeup 23%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.04
K% Δ+0.026
Sample120.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.1----
Batters Faced282----
K%21.7%18.6% to 29.2%+/- 5.3%
BB%5.5%2.4% to 8.3%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.5%20.7% to 29.4%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.270.77 to 1.83+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3110.258 to 0.342+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.5%3.8% to 9.8%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.772.32 to 5.08+/- 1.38
FIP3.752.75 to 4.89+/- 1.07
WHIP1.3281.085 to 1.636+/- 0.275
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

44 career BF

xwOBA0.214
K%20.8%
BB%3.0%
Barrel4.5%
vs RHH

121 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%19.7%
BB%3.2%
Barrel5.5%