Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Bivens, Spencer

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.6% K%
Range
14.1% to 25.2%
Live Δ
--
Team SF Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace10.12
ERA rolling p504.65
Observed weight6%
ERA
2.61 3.57 4.65 5.72 6.69
FIP
2.59 3.32 4.12 4.92 5.65
K%
12.6% 15.1% 17.9% 20.7% 23.2%
BB%
3.1% 4.8% 6.7% 8.6% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Insufficient sample

Percentile strips appear after the current-season sample clears the threshold.

Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher.

Stuff+ pending

No current Stuff+ row is available for this pitcher in the latest daily scoring artifact. The profile keeps this block visible so missing coverage is explicit rather than silent.

Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bivens, Spencer · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 14%14%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 73%73% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bivens, Spencer · 2025 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 37.7%Cutter: 27.8%Changeup: 14.9%Sweeper: 8.4%4-Seam Fastball: 6.0%Slurve: 5.1% MIX SI 38%FC 28%CH 15%ST 8%FF 6%SV 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bivens, Spencer · 2025 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.3, IVB 2.0SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.9FCCH: HB -0.6, IVB 2.7CHST: HB -0.7, IVB 3.0STFF: HB 0.1, IVB 1.4FFSV: HB -0.1, IVB 4.0SV horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.321 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 38%, Cutter 28%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.3----
Batters Faced168----
K%18.6%14.1% to 25.2%+/- 5.6%
BB%7.1%3.2% to 10.9%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%16.9%13.5% to 22.4%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.430.47 to 2.18+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3250.260 to 0.389+/- 0.064
Barrel% Allowed8.3%3.4% to 12.1%+/- 4.4%
ERA4.252.28 to 6.59+/- 2.15
FIP4.272.68 to 5.90+/- 1.61
WHIP1.3601.087 to 1.793+/- 0.353
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

284 career BF

xwOBA0.321
K%14.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

308 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%17.4%
BB%5.2%
Barrel7.0%