Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Cutter 22%, Curveball 19%.
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026
Cameron, Noah
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team KC
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.14 |
| ERA current pace | 4.61 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.38 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
ERA
3.33
3.83
4.38
4.94
5.43
FIP
3.50
3.83
4.20
4.58
4.91
K%
17.1%
18.3%
19.7%
21.1%
22.4%
BB%
6.0%
6.8%
7.6%
8.4%
9.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.6%
67
Barrel allowed10.6%
19
-33 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
19
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
19
K%20.7%
37
Whiff%21.9%
41
xwOBA allowed0.342
24
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
30%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 30.2% | 256 | 105 | qualified |
| CH | 20.3% | 172 | 102 | limited sample |
| FC | 19.3% | 164 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 16.3% | 138 | 101 | limited sample |
| SL | 12.1% | 103 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 1.9% | 16 | 100 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.03 |
| K% Δ | +0.020 |
| Sample | 56.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 143.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 590 | -- | -- |
| K% | 18.8% | 16.2% to 24.5% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 5.8% to 10.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 22.9% | 19.7% to 28.1% | +/- 4.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.41 | 0.97 to 1.99 | +/- 0.51 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.342 | 0.288 to 0.362 | +/- 0.037 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.5% | 4.7% to 9.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 4.64 | 2.55 to 5.53 | +/- 1.49 |
| FIP | 4.33 | 3.65 to 5.65 | +/- 1.00 |
| WHIP | 1.362 | 0.961 to 1.572 | +/- 0.305 |
vs LHH
135 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHH
423 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.281 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |