Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Cameron, Noah

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 24.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal7 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.14
ERA current pace4.89
ERA rolling p504.63
Observed weight65%
ERA
3.53 4.05 4.63 5.21 5.73
FIP
3.60 3.95 4.34 4.73 5.08
K%
18.3% 19.3% 20.4% 21.6% 22.6%
BB%
6.3% 6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
26
ERA4.89
27
BB%7.7%
65
K%21.4%
42 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
24
Barrel allowed10.3%
17 -36 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
18
Hard-hit allowed39.2%
48
Whiff%22.6%
47
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+103
57
Curveball Stuff+101
37
Cutter Stuff+102
51
Fastball Stuff+103
51
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+106
80
Slider Stuff+104
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cameron, Noah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.342 2026-07-06: 0.3402026-07-07: 0.3402026-07-08: 0.3402026-07-09: 0.3402026-07-10: 0.3402026-07-11: 0.3402026-07-12: 0.3402026-07-13: 0.3422026-07-14: 0.3422026-07-15: 0.3422026-07-16: 0.3422026-07-17: 0.342 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cameron, Noah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cameron, Noah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.9%Changeup: 20.9%Cutter: 20.1%Curveball: 17.2%Slider: 9.8%Sinker: 4.0% FF28% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 21%FC 20%CU 17%SL 10%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cameron, Noah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 24″48″72″96″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 80.9 mphCH81 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.4 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 81.7 mphCU82 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphSinker: 4% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphEephus: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 94″ drop, 57.4 mphEP57 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.1% 365 103 qualified
CH 21.0% 263 103 qualified
FC 19.6% 246 102 qualified
CB 16.3% 205 101 qualified
SL 10.6% 133 104 limited sample
SI 3.4% 43 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Cutter 22%, Curveball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.25
K% Δ+0.026
Sample98.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.4----
Batters Faced595----
K%18.8%16.2% to 24.5%+/- 4.2%
BB%7.7%5.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%22.9%19.7% to 28.1%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.410.97 to 1.99+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3420.288 to 0.362+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.5%4.7% to 9.8%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.642.56 to 5.53+/- 1.49
FIP4.333.65 to 5.65+/- 1.00
WHIP1.3620.962 to 1.572+/- 0.305
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

135 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%18.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel6.4%
vs RHH

423 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%17.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.0%