Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Henderson, Logan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.4% K%
Range
22.9% to 33.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 24 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace2.74
ERA rolling p503.37
Observed weight29%
ERA
1.63 2.45 3.37 4.29 5.11
FIP
2.73 3.15 3.62 4.09 4.51
K%
24.8% 26.8% 28.9% 31.1% 33.0%
BB%
5.8% 6.9% 8.1% 9.3% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.1%
85 +48 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.3%
22 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
28
Hard-hit allowed31.0%
91
K%33.7%
96 +20 vs proj
Whiff%24.0%
59
xwOBA allowed0.270
84 +22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Henderson, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.2702026-05-24: 0.2702026-05-25: 0.2702026-05-26: 0.2702026-05-28: 0.2702026-05-29: 0.2702026-05-30: 0.2702026-05-31: 0.2702026-06-01: 0.270 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Henderson, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 56%56%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Henderson, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.0%Changeup: 31.3%Cutter: 19.5%Slider: 4.2% MIX FF 45%CH 31%FC 19%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Henderson, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.1FFCH: HB -1.3, IVB 2.7CHFC: HB -0.1, IVB 2.0FCSL: HB -0.4, IVB 3.8SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.9% 159 104 limited sample
CH 31.1% 110 114 limited sample
FC 19.5% 69 106 limited sample
SL 4.5% 16 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Changeup 38%, Cutter 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.44
K% Δ+0.073
Sample24.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.0----
Batters Faced267----
K%26.4%22.9% to 33.3%+/- 5.2%
BB%9.5%6.8% to 12.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%22.8%17.8% to 27.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.360.97 to 2.04+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3010.260 to 0.356+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.3% to 11.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.180.71 to 5.26+/- 2.27
FIP3.902.84 to 5.17+/- 1.16
WHIP1.2110.840 to 1.575+/- 0.367
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

68 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%24.3%
BB%10.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

47 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%25.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.2%