Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Henderson, Logan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.4% K%
Range
22.9% to 33.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
94
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal5 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace2.51
ERA rolling p502.94
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.29 2.07 2.94 3.81 4.59
FIP
2.81 3.21 3.66 4.10 4.50
K%
25.9% 27.2% 28.7% 30.1% 31.4%
BB%
5.1% 5.7% 6.5% 7.3% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.85
98
ERA2.51
91
BB%5.0%
96 +53 vs proj
K%29.7%
92
xwOBA allowed0.257
94 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
33
Fastball velo93.1
29
Hard-hit allowed37.1%
61
Whiff%23.2%
55
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+112
98
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Cutter Stuff+105
82
Slider Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Henderson, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.257 2026-09-12: 0.2512026-09-13: 0.2512026-09-14: 0.2512026-09-18: 0.2572026-09-19: 0.2572026-09-20: 0.2572026-09-21: 0.2572026-09-22: 0.2572026-09-23: 0.2572026-09-24: 0.2572026-09-25: 0.2572026-09-26: 0.257 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Henderson, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Henderson, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.4%Changeup: 35.2%Cutter: 15.3%Sweeper: 3.1% FF46% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 46%CH 35%FC 15%ST 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Henderson, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 35% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 83.0 mphCH83 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 87.8 mphFC88 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.0% 430 105 qualified
CH 35.4% 324 112 qualified
FC 13.9% 127 105 limited sample
SL 3.6% 33 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Changeup 38%, Cutter 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.67
K% Δ+0.033
Sample99.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.7----
Batters Faced270----
K%26.4%22.9% to 33.3%+/- 5.2%
BB%9.5%6.8% to 12.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%22.8%17.8% to 27.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.360.97 to 2.04+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3010.260 to 0.356+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.3% to 11.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.180.71 to 5.26+/- 2.27
FIP3.902.84 to 5.17+/- 1.16
WHIP1.2110.840 to 1.575+/- 0.367
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

68 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%24.3%
BB%10.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

47 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%25.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.2%