Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Henderson, Logan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.4% K%
Range
22.9% to 33.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
70
Arsenal5 metrics
85
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace3.18
ERA rolling p503.48
Observed weight33%
ERA
1.78 2.59 3.48 4.37 5.17
FIP
2.68 3.09 3.54 4.00 4.41
K%
24.4% 26.3% 28.3% 30.4% 32.3%
BB%
5.7% 6.7% 7.9% 9.1% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.99
91
ERA3.18
72
BB%5.9%
88 +51 vs proj
K%31.1%
95 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.272
88 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
24
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed32.9%
87
Whiff%23.6%
56
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+114
99
Cutter Stuff+107
95
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+108
92
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Henderson, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.272 2026-07-05: 0.2702026-07-06: 0.2702026-07-07: 0.2702026-07-08: 0.2702026-07-09: 0.2702026-07-10: 0.2702026-07-11: 0.2722026-07-12: 0.2722026-07-13: 0.2722026-07-14: 0.2722026-07-15: 0.2722026-07-16: 0.272 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Henderson, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 32%32%Zone: 57%57%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Henderson, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.1%Changeup: 32.5%Cutter: 21.3%Slider: 4.2% FF42% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 42%CH 32%FC 21%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Henderson, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 32% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 82.6 mphCH83 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mphSlider: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 80.4 mphSL80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.9% 159 104 limited sample
CH 31.1% 110 114 limited sample
FC 19.5% 69 107 limited sample
SL 4.5% 16 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Changeup 38%, Cutter 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.00
K% Δ+0.047
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.8----
Batters Faced266----
K%26.4%22.9% to 33.3%+/- 5.2%
BB%9.5%6.8% to 12.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%23.0%17.8% to 27.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.360.97 to 2.04+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3010.260 to 0.356+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.3% to 11.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.180.68 to 5.26+/- 2.29
FIP3.902.84 to 5.17+/- 1.16
WHIP1.2110.840 to 1.575+/- 0.367
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

68 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%24.3%
BB%10.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

47 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%25.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.2%