Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Warren, Will

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
18.9% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal6 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.08
ERA current pace3.92
ERA rolling p503.96
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.64 3.26 3.96 4.66 5.29
FIP
3.02 3.43 3.88 4.34 4.75
K%
21.5% 22.6% 23.7% 24.8% 25.8%
BB%
6.5% 7.1% 7.7% 8.3% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
51
ERA3.92
54
BB%7.8%
66
K%23.7%
63
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed7.3%
52 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
11
Whiff%21.4%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Mithrandir Stuff+108
93
Sinker Stuff+105
69
Slider Stuff+112
98
Curveball Stuff+100
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Warren, Will · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-09-13: 0.3252026-09-14: 0.3252026-09-18: 0.3222026-09-19: 0.3222026-09-20: 0.3222026-09-21: 0.3242026-09-22: 0.3242026-09-23: 0.3242026-09-24: 0.3242026-09-25: 0.3242026-09-26: 0.3202026-09-27: 0.320 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Warren, Will · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.1%Sinker: 24.2%Sweeper: 20.2%Changeup: 13.3%Curveball: 5.8%Slider: 0.4% FF36% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SI 24%ST 20%CH 13%CU 6%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphSinker: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.9 mphST84 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.3 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.3 mphCU81 mphSlider: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.3% 698 108 qualified
SI 22.8% 427 105 qualified
SL 21.4% 401 112 qualified
CH 13.3% 249 103 qualified
CB 5.1% 95 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.317 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 21%, Sweeper 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.39
K% Δ+0.009
Sample164.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.1----
Batters Faced329----
K%22.8%18.9% to 30.8%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.2%6.0% to 11.2%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%22.0%19.6% to 28.3%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.460.86 to 2.16+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3260.279 to 0.359+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.8% to 13.7%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.312.98 to 6.34+/- 1.68
FIP4.082.98 to 5.17+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3221.137 to 1.680+/- 0.271
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%19.4%
BB%9.7%
Barrel10.9%
vs RHH

436 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%24.3%
BB%6.1%
Barrel10.4%