Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Warren, Will

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
18.9% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace4.03
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.80 3.39 4.04 4.70 5.29
FIP
3.12 3.51 3.94 4.37 4.75
K%
20.6% 21.8% 23.2% 24.6% 25.8%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
53
ERA4.03
50
BB%7.4%
71
K%23.0%
54
xwOBA allowed0.325
39
Barrel allowed7.3%
57 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
34
Whiff%21.2%
35
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Sinker Stuff+103
63
Slider Stuff+113
99
Changeup Stuff+105
71
Curveball Stuff+99
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Warren, Will · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.325 2026-07-06: 0.3122026-07-07: 0.3122026-07-08: 0.3122026-07-09: 0.3192026-07-10: 0.3192026-07-11: 0.3192026-07-12: 0.3192026-07-13: 0.3192026-07-14: 0.3252026-07-15: 0.3252026-07-16: 0.3252026-07-17: 0.325 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Warren, Will · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.4%Sinker: 26.2%Sweeper: 19.6%Changeup: 10.5%Curveball: 4.2% FF39% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SI 26%ST 20%CH 10%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphSinker: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.0 mphST84 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.9 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 81.2 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.9% 496 107 qualified
SI 26.8% 333 103 qualified
SL 20.6% 256 113 qualified
CH 9.8% 122 105 limited sample
CB 2.9% 36 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.317 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 21%, Sweeper 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.28
K% Δ+0.002
Sample106.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.9----
Batters Faced324----
K%22.8%18.9% to 30.8%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.2%6.0% to 11.2%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%22.0%19.6% to 28.3%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.460.86 to 2.16+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3260.279 to 0.359+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.8% to 13.7%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.312.98 to 6.34+/- 1.68
FIP4.082.98 to 5.17+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3221.137 to 1.680+/- 0.271
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%19.4%
BB%9.7%
Barrel10.9%
vs RHH

436 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%24.3%
BB%6.1%
Barrel10.4%