Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Adams, Travis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
14.9% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace4.88
ERA rolling p504.58
Observed weight50%
ERA
3.32 3.92 4.58 5.24 5.83
FIP
3.29 3.71 4.18 4.64 5.06
K%
18.5% 20.4% 22.5% 24.6% 26.5%
BB%
7.1% 8.1% 9.1% 10.2% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
53
ERA4.88
29
BB%10.0%
37
K%24.3%
67 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.314
48 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
68 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
50
Hard-hit allowed31.8%
91
Whiff%25.1%
68
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+103
55
Cutter Stuff+101
49
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+100
28
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Adams, Travis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.314 2026-09-12: 0.3102026-09-13: 0.3102026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3142026-09-20: 0.3142026-09-21: 0.3142026-09-22: 0.3142026-09-23: 0.3142026-09-24: 0.3142026-09-25: 0.3142026-09-26: 0.314 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Adams, Travis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Adams, Travis · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 25.4%Slider: 24.5%4-Seam Fastball: 23.7%Cutter: 20.5%Sinker: 5.8% CH25% · 86 mphprimary pitch CH 25%SL 25%FF 24%FC 21%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Adams, Travis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Changeup: 25% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphSlider: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphCutter: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.8 mphFC92 mphSinker: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.1 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 25.7% 117 98 limited sample
FB 24.6% 112 98 limited sample
CH 23.5% 107 103 limited sample
FC 20.2% 92 101 limited sample
SI 5.9% 27 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.288 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Slider 20%, Cutter 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.15
K% Δ+0.038
Sample57.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.3----
Batters Faced309----
K%20.5%14.9% to 29.2%+/- 7.1%
BB%8.9%5.9% to 12.2%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%23.2%19.3% to 28.7%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.340.74 to 2.10+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3360.289 to 0.370+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.0% to 13.4%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.733.45 to 6.99+/- 1.77
FIP4.353.02 to 5.54+/- 1.26
WHIP1.3521.104 to 1.703+/- 0.300
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

91 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%16.7%
BB%8.9%
Barrel10.4%
vs RHH

68 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%18.1%
BB%6.6%
Barrel9.7%