Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Urena, Walbert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.0% K%
Range
5.9% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 22 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal5 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason2.71
ERA current pace2.97
ERA rolling p502.90
Observed weight73%
ERA
1.02 1.91 2.90 3.89 4.78
FIP
1.81 2.60 3.49 4.38 5.18
K%
19.2% 20.6% 22.3% 23.9% 25.4%
BB%
8.0% 8.8% 9.7% 10.5% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
62
ERA2.97
84
BB%11.1%
25 -41 vs proj
K%22.8%
56 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.281
84
Barrel allowed5.3%
83 +31 vs proj
Fastball velo98.1
95
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
72
Whiff%26.3%
78 +40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+106
82
Fastball Stuff+101
38
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+101
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ureña, Walbert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.281 2026-09-13: 0.2862026-09-14: 0.2862026-09-18: 0.2812026-09-19: 0.2812026-09-20: 0.2812026-09-21: 0.2812026-09-22: 0.2812026-09-23: 0.2812026-09-24: 0.2812026-09-25: 0.2812026-09-26: 0.2812026-09-27: 0.281 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ureña, Walbert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ureña, Walbert · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 34.1%Sinker: 33.3%4-Seam Fastball: 18.4%Sweeper: 14.0%Pitch Out: 0.0% CH34% · 91 mphprimary pitch CH 34%SI 33%FF 18%ST 14%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ureña, Walbert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 34% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.0 mphCH91 mphSinker: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 98.1 mphSI98 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.9 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.2 mphST87 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.7 mphPO85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 36.3% 627 106 qualified
SI 34.1% 590 102 qualified
FB 15.7% 271 101 qualified
SL 13.9% 240 101 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 39%, Changeup 32%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.66
K% Δ+0.038
Sample151.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.4----
Batters Faced123----
K%19.0%5.9% to 26.2%+/- 10.1%
BB%7.8%0.1% to 8.5%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%21.2%3.8% to 27.6%+/- 11.9%
HR/91.090.00 to 1.45+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.2840.001 to 0.295+/- 0.147
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.7%+/- 4.8%
ERA3.630.00 to 4.82+/- 2.41
FIP3.460.48 to 4.81+/- 2.17
WHIP1.0650.022 to 1.238+/- 0.608
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.6%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.9%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%