Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Urena, Walbert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.0% K%
Range
6.0% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 22 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal5 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason2.71
ERA current pace2.88
ERA rolling p502.81
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.07 1.90 2.81 3.73 4.56
FIP
2.04 2.78 3.61 4.43 5.18
K%
17.5% 19.5% 21.7% 24.0% 26.0%
BB%
8.2% 9.2% 10.3% 11.5% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
43
ERA2.88
79
BB%13.2%
11 -53 vs proj
K%22.2%
48 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.283
79
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
91
Hard-hit allowed32.9%
87
Whiff%26.6%
76 +40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Sinker Stuff+99
30
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ureña, Walbert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.283 2026-07-05: 0.2822026-07-06: 0.2822026-07-07: 0.2822026-07-08: 0.2822026-07-09: 0.2822026-07-10: 0.2832026-07-11: 0.2832026-07-12: 0.2832026-07-13: 0.2832026-07-14: 0.2832026-07-15: 0.2832026-07-16: 0.283 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ureña, Walbert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 42%42%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ureña, Walbert · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 32.6%Sinker: 31.5%4-Seam Fastball: 20.1%Sweeper: 15.7%Pitch Out: 0.1% CH33% · 90 mphprimary pitch CH 33%SI 31%FF 20%ST 16%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ureña, Walbert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 33% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.3 mphCH90 mphSinker: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 97.5 mphSI97 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.2 mphST86 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.7 mphPO85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 35.9% 304 106 qualified
SI 30.3% 257 99 qualified
FB 18.7% 158 98 limited sample
SL 15.1% 128 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 39%, Changeup 32%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.75
K% Δ+0.032
Sample85.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.8----
Batters Faced125----
K%19.0%6.0% to 26.2%+/- 10.1%
BB%7.8%0.1% to 8.5%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%21.3%3.7% to 27.7%+/- 12.0%
HR/91.090.00 to 1.45+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.2840.001 to 0.295+/- 0.147
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.7%+/- 4.8%
ERA3.630.00 to 4.82+/- 2.41
FIP3.460.48 to 4.81+/- 2.17
WHIP1.0650.022 to 1.237+/- 0.608
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.6%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.9%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%