Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Graceffo, Gordon

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
15.1% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace2.91
ERA rolling p503.64
Observed weight44%
ERA
1.98 2.76 3.64 4.51 5.30
FIP
2.39 3.16 4.01 4.86 5.63
K%
13.8% 15.9% 18.2% 20.5% 22.6%
BB%
6.4% 7.6% 8.9% 10.2% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.04
87
ERA2.91
78
BB%11.4%
21 -50 vs proj
K%13.0%
3 -47 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.364
8 -45 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.6%
8 -35 vs proj
Fastball velo95.5
68
Hard-hit allowed47.8%
5
Whiff%13.4%
2 -43 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+102
47
Curveball Stuff+99
10
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Sinker Stuff+80
0
Slider Stuff+104
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Graceffo, Gordon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.364 2026-07-05: 0.3782026-07-06: 0.3782026-07-07: 0.3782026-07-08: 0.3782026-07-09: 0.3762026-07-10: 0.3762026-07-11: 0.3672026-07-12: 0.3672026-07-13: 0.3672026-07-14: 0.3652026-07-15: 0.3652026-07-16: 0.364 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Graceffo, Gordon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 13%13%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 40%40%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Graceffo, Gordon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.0%Slider: 27.9%Curveball: 15.1%Changeup: 9.6%Sinker: 6.5% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%SL 28%CU 15%CH 10%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Graceffo, Gordon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphSlider: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.1 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 83.2 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mphSinker: 6% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.7% 190 104 limited sample
SL 24.0% 107 104 limited sample
CB 16.9% 75 99 limited sample
CH 10.6% 47 102 limited sample
SI 5.8% 26 80 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Slider 27%, Curveball 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.18
K% Δ-0.095
Sample47.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.3----
Batters Faced150----
K%22.5%15.1% to 29.8%+/- 7.4%
BB%7.3%3.9% to 11.4%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.3%17.1% to 28.7%+/- 5.8%
HR/90.900.07 to 1.63+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3110.262 to 0.363+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.1% to 12.4%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.093.15 to 7.80+/- 2.33
FIP3.572.19 to 6.74+/- 2.27
WHIP1.2931.069 to 1.765+/- 0.348
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

96 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%17.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

129 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%18.3%
BB%5.3%
Barrel7.9%