Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Graceffo, Gordon

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
15.1% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace1.65
ERA rolling p503.36
Observed weight33%
ERA
1.62 2.45 3.36 4.28 5.11
FIP
2.19 2.99 3.89 4.78 5.59
K%
13.8% 16.2% 18.9% 21.6% 24.0%
BB%
5.1% 6.4% 7.8% 9.3% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.5%
37 -32 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
24 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo95.6
72
Hard-hit allowed47.2%
9
K%12.1%
2 -51 vs proj
Whiff%10.8%
1 -44 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.360
11 -41 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Graceffo, Gordon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3632026-05-19: 0.3632026-05-21: 0.3522026-05-23: 0.3512026-05-24: 0.3512026-05-25: 0.3512026-05-26: 0.3512026-05-28: 0.3512026-05-29: 0.3512026-05-30: 0.3512026-05-31: 0.3502026-06-01: 0.360 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Graceffo, Gordon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 11%11%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Graceffo, Gordon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.0%Slider: 23.3%Curveball: 17.9%Changeup: 10.2%Sinker: 5.6% MIX FF 43%SL 23%CU 18%CH 10%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Graceffo, Gordon · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.7SLCU: HB 0.1, IVB 4.7CUCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.7CHSI: HB 1.1, IVB 1.5SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.7% 152 104 limited sample
SL 23.6% 84 106 limited sample
CB 17.4% 62 98 limited sample
CH 10.4% 37 103 limited sample
SI 5.9% 21 80 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Slider 27%, Curveball 26%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.44
K% Δ-0.105
Sample31.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.0----
Batters Faced154----
K%22.5%15.1% to 29.8%+/- 7.4%
BB%7.3%3.9% to 11.4%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.3%17.0% to 28.7%+/- 5.8%
HR/90.900.07 to 1.63+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3110.262 to 0.363+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.1% to 12.4%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.093.15 to 7.80+/- 2.33
FIP3.572.19 to 6.74+/- 2.27
WHIP1.2931.069 to 1.765+/- 0.348
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

96 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%17.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

129 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%18.3%
BB%5.3%
Barrel7.9%