Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Graceffo, Gordon

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
15.1% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace2.56
ERA rolling p503.26
Observed weight57%
ERA
1.60 2.39 3.26 4.14 4.92
FIP
2.08 2.85 3.70 4.56 5.32
K%
16.7% 18.4% 20.3% 22.1% 23.8%
BB%
7.2% 8.2% 9.3% 10.4% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
88
ERA2.56
91
BB%11.0%
26 -46 vs proj
K%18.8%
29 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.323
37
Barrel allowed8.2%
38
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed43.6%
16
Whiff%18.7%
17 -31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+100
35
Changeup Stuff+101
48
Curveball Stuff+98
11
Cutter Stuff+110
99
Sinker Stuff+89
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Graceffo, Gordon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.323 2026-09-12: 0.3272026-09-13: 0.3272026-09-14: 0.3242026-09-18: 0.3232026-09-19: 0.3232026-09-20: 0.3232026-09-21: 0.3252026-09-22: 0.3252026-09-23: 0.3252026-09-24: 0.3252026-09-25: 0.3252026-09-26: 0.323 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Graceffo, Gordon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Graceffo, Gordon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.8%Slider: 18.3%Cutter: 15.2%Changeup: 13.3%Curveball: 8.4%Sinker: 6.9% FF38% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SL 18%FC 15%CH 13%CU 8%SI 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Graceffo, Gordon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphSlider: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.4 mphFC89 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 83.2 mphCU83 mphSinker: 7% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.0% 261 103 qualified
SL 29.6% 203 100 qualified
CH 12.1% 83 101 limited sample
CB 11.1% 76 98 limited sample
SI 6.9% 47 89 limited sample
FC 2.3% 16 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Slider 27%, Curveball 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.53
K% Δ-0.037
Sample79.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.9----
Batters Faced149----
K%22.5%15.1% to 29.8%+/- 7.4%
BB%7.3%3.9% to 11.4%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.3%17.1% to 28.7%+/- 5.8%
HR/90.900.07 to 1.63+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3110.262 to 0.363+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.1% to 12.4%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.093.15 to 7.81+/- 2.33
FIP3.572.19 to 6.74+/- 2.27
WHIP1.2931.069 to 1.765+/- 0.348
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

96 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%17.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

129 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%18.3%
BB%5.3%
Barrel7.9%