Graceffo, Gordon
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.19 |
| ERA current pace | 1.65 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.36 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 42.7% | 152 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 23.6% | 84 | 106 | limited sample |
| CB | 17.4% | 62 | 98 | limited sample |
| CH | 10.4% | 37 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 5.9% | 21 | 80 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.44 |
| K% Δ | -0.105 |
| Sample | 31.0 IP |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 34.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 154 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.5% | 15.1% to 29.8% | +/- 7.4% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 3.9% to 11.4% | +/- 3.8% |
| Whiff% | 22.3% | 17.0% to 28.7% | +/- 5.8% |
| HR/9 | 0.90 | 0.07 to 1.63 | +/- 0.78 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.311 | 0.262 to 0.363 | +/- 0.050 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 3.1% to 12.4% | +/- 4.7% |
| ERA | 4.09 | 3.15 to 7.80 | +/- 2.33 |
| FIP | 3.57 | 2.19 to 6.74 | +/- 2.27 |
| WHIP | 1.293 | 1.069 to 1.765 | +/- 0.348 |
96 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |
129 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.281 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 7.9% |