Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Smith-Shawver, Aj

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
16.9% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
17
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace6.60
ERA rolling p504.85
Observed weight37%
ERA
3.59 4.19 4.85 5.51 6.11
FIP
3.35 3.92 4.57 5.21 5.79
K%
16.5% 18.3% 20.3% 22.3% 24.1%
BB%
6.3% 7.4% 8.6% 9.8% 10.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.58
13
ERA6.60
4
BB%11.4%
22 -43 vs proj
K%17.1%
15 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
31 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
37
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed36.1%
68
Whiff%20.6%
31 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+104
74
Fastball Stuff+105
70
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Smith-Shawver, Aj · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.330 2026-09-13: 0.3362026-09-14: 0.3362026-09-18: 0.3322026-09-19: 0.3322026-09-20: 0.3322026-09-21: 0.3192026-09-22: 0.3192026-09-23: 0.3192026-09-24: 0.3192026-09-25: 0.3192026-09-26: 0.3302026-09-27: 0.330 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Smith-Shawver, Aj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 43%43%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith-Shawver, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.0%Split-Finger: 35.5%Curveball: 10.2%Sinker: 7.5%Slider: 4.7%Cutter: 3.1% FF39% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 39%FS 36%CU 10%SI 8%SL 5%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith-Shawver, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 36% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 82.9 mphFS83 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphSlider: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.8 mphSL84 mphCutter: 3% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.5 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.2% 127 105 limited sample
CB 15.3% 34 104 limited sample
SI 13.5% 30 101 limited sample
SL 13.1% 29 93 limited sample
FC 0.9% 2 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Split-Finger 34%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.29
K% Δ-0.042
Sample29.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.1----
Batters Faced293----
K%21.3%16.9% to 28.0%+/- 5.6%
BB%7.8%4.7% to 10.7%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%23.5%19.3% to 29.0%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.410.63 to 1.98+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3120.261 to 0.328+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.0% to 12.9%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.311.77 to 5.22+/- 1.72
FIP3.652.36 to 5.70+/- 1.67
WHIP1.2320.962 to 1.514+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

219 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%19.5%
BB%7.2%
Barrel9.8%
vs RHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.4%
BB%6.0%
Barrel9.4%