Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

McGreevy, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
11.3% to 21.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal7 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.40
ERA current pace3.83
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.65 3.28 3.97 4.67 5.29
FIP
3.58 3.91 4.27 4.64 4.96
K%
14.8% 15.7% 16.7% 17.6% 18.5%
BB%
5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 7.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
60
ERA3.83
57
BB%6.7%
82
K%16.7%
14
xwOBA allowed0.351
14
Barrel allowed9.1%
24
Fastball velo91.5
10
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
30
Whiff%18.2%
14
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Cutter Stuff+100
40
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+102
49
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McGreevy, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.351 2026-09-12: 0.3522026-09-13: 0.3522026-09-14: 0.3492026-09-18: 0.3492026-09-19: 0.3492026-09-20: 0.3492026-09-21: 0.3502026-09-22: 0.3502026-09-23: 0.3502026-09-24: 0.3502026-09-25: 0.3502026-09-26: 0.351 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McGreevy, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McGreevy, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.7%Changeup: 20.3%Sinker: 16.1%Curveball: 12.7%Cutter: 11.2%Sweeper: 10.5% FF25% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 25%CH 20%SI 16%CU 13%FC 11%ST 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McGreevy, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphSinker: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.8 mphSI91 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 78.6 mphCU79 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.6 mphFC88 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSlider: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 83.6 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 24.5% 460 104 qualified
CH 21.0% 394 100 qualified
SI 16.5% 310 100 qualified
SL 14.7% 276 102 qualified
CB 12.3% 230 102 qualified
FC 11.0% 207 100 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.301 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.00
K% Δ+0.004
Sample171.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.1----
Batters Faced289----
K%16.3%11.3% to 21.2%+/- 4.9%
BB%5.1%2.9% to 7.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%17.5%13.9% to 22.7%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.490.57 to 1.97+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3430.282 to 0.375+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.3% to 11.2%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.832.72 to 6.06+/- 1.67
FIP4.593.07 to 4.81+/- 0.87
WHIP1.2730.932 to 1.498+/- 0.283
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

233 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%13.1%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

272 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%14.7%
BB%3.2%
Barrel6.9%